Regular Season - 13 · 27 November 2026, 17:30 UTC

1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Nürnberg 2. Bundesliga prediction

Voith-Arena, Heidenheim

Our model says: 1. FC Heidenheim 1–2 1. FC Nürnberg

The model makes it 33% 1. FC Heidenheim, 24% draw, 43% 1. FC Nürnberg — fair odds of 3.03, 4.17 and 2.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.63, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.95.

Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,921 settled matches.

Edge to 1. FC Nürnberg: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. 1. FC Heidenheim's rating is built from 11 2. Bundesliga matches and 1. FC Nürnberg's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 715 matches.

Key facts

  • 1. FC Heidenheim are 7th on 16 points from 11 games; 1. FC Nürnberg are 2nd on 24 points from 11 games — 2. Bundesliga.
  • 1. FC Heidenheim have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Hannover 96.
  • 1. FC Nürnberg have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to SV Darmstadt 98.
  • Last 6 meetings: 1. FC Nürnberg 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 7 September 2023, ended FC Nurnberg 3–1 FC Heidenheim.

More 2. Bundesliga predictions

All 2. Bundesliga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Nürnberg

69%
Both teams to score
69%
Over 2.5 goals
31%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

1. FC Heidenheim win Draw 1. FC Nürnberg win
  1. 1–19%
  2. 1–29%
  3. 2–17%
  4. 2–27%
  5. 1–36%
  6. 0–25%
  7. 0–15%

Scores read 1. FC Heidenheim first; the other scorelines share the remaining 52%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

1. FC Nürnberg at 43%: of 2,926 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Nürnberg

1. FC Heidenheim

2. Bundesliga

  • D2-2Hannover 968 November 2026
  • L1-2away to Karlsruher SC31 October 2026
  • D1-1Energie Cottbus24 October 2026
  • L1-3away to VfL Wolfsburg17 October 2026
  • D0-01. FC Kaiserslautern9 October 2026

1. FC Nürnberg

2. Bundesliga

  • W2-0SV Darmstadt 987 November 2026
  • W3-1away to FC St. Pauli1 November 2026
  • L0-11. FC Kaiserslautern24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Energie Cottbus16 October 2026
  • D4-4VfL Wolfsburg10 October 2026

What these results say

  • 1. FC Heidenheim did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • 1. FC Heidenheim scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 1. FC Heidenheim conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 1. FC Nürnberg scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 1. FC Nürnberg conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
71. FC Heidenheim114431920-116
21. FC Nürnberg117312613+1324

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Nürnberg

  • 7 September 2023FC Nurnberg 3–1 FC HeidenheimFriendlies Clubs
  • 19 February 2023FC Heidenheim 5–0 FC Nurnberg2. Bundesliga
  • 12 August 2022FC Nurnberg 0–3 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
  • 3 April 2022FC Heidenheim 3–1 FC Nurnberg2. Bundesliga
  • 23 October 2021FC Nurnberg 4–0 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
  • 24 April 2021FC Nurnberg 3–1 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga

Leading scorers: 1. FC Heidenheim and 1. FC Nürnberg

1. FC Heidenheim

No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.

1. FC Nürnberg

GoalsAssists

  • M. Zoma70
  • P. Scobel61

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 0.2% chance of the title and 1. FC Nürnberg 16.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

1. FC Heidenheim 1. FC Nürnberg
0.74 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.88
1.59 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.27
1.63 Model expected goals (this match) 1.95

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives 1. FC Nürnberg the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim against 1.95 for 1. FC Nürnberg. 1. FC Heidenheim's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1.27 for 1. FC Nürnberg.

1. FC Heidenheim carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.67 for 1. FC Nürnberg.

How the model reaches 43% for 1. FC Nürnberg to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for 1. FC Nürnberg to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, 1. FC Heidenheim's ratings add 5 points and 1. FC Nürnberg's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 43%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage31%−6
  3. Both sides at this match's level32%+1
  4. 1. FC Heidenheim's ratings37%+5
  5. 1. FC Nürnberg's ratings43%+6

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

1. FC Heidenheim1. FC Nürnberg
11Matches11
4W 4D 3LRecord7W 3D 1L
19 1.7 per gameGoals scored26 2.4 per game
20 1.8 per gameGoals conceded13 1.2 per game
3 of 11Clean sheets3 of 11
1 of 11Failed to score1 of 11
1 of 1Penalties scored0 of 1
16 1.5 per gameYellow cards23 2.1 per game
4-4-2 8×Usual shape4-2-3-1 11×

1. FC Heidenheim at home · 1. FC Nürnberg away

6Played5
3W 3D 0LRecord3W 2D 0L
13–9Goals for – against11–6
2 of 6Clean sheets1 of 5

League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

1. FC Heidenheim1. FC Nürnberg

151018 1. FC Heidenheim, match 1, 8 August 2026: vs VfL Osnabrück 4-3 → 1st1. FC Heidenheim, match 2, 15 August 2026: at Hertha BSC 4-1 → 7th1. FC Heidenheim, match 3, 29 August 2026: vs Dynamo Dresden 5-3 → 3rd1. FC Heidenheim, match 4, 6 September 2026: at SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-1 → 3rd1. FC Heidenheim, match 5, 13 September 2026: vs Holstein Kiel 1-0 → 3rd1. FC Heidenheim, match 6, 20 September 2026: at Arminia Bielefeld 2-2 → 3rd1. FC Heidenheim, match 7, 9 October 2026: vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0-0 → 3rd1. FC Heidenheim, match 8, 17 October 2026: at VfL Wolfsburg 3-1 → 5th1. FC Heidenheim, match 9, 24 October 2026: vs Energie Cottbus 1-1 → 5th1. FC Heidenheim, match 10, 31 October 2026: at Karlsruher SC 2-1 → 6th1. FC Heidenheim, match 11, 8 November 2026: vs Hannover 96 2-2 → 7th1. FC Nürnberg, match 1, 9 August 2026: vs Dynamo Dresden 3-0 → 2nd1. FC Nürnberg, match 2, 15 August 2026: at SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-4 → 1st1. FC Nürnberg, match 3, 29 August 2026: vs Arminia Bielefeld 4-1 → 1st1. FC Nürnberg, match 4, 5 September 2026: at Holstein Kiel 2-2 → 1st1. FC Nürnberg, match 5, 11 September 2026: vs Hannover 96 2-1 → 1st1. FC Nürnberg, match 6, 19 September 2026: at Karlsruher SC 0-1 → 1st1. FC Nürnberg, match 7, 10 October 2026: vs VfL Wolfsburg 4-4 → 2nd1. FC Nürnberg, match 8, 16 October 2026: at Energie Cottbus 1-1 → 2nd1. FC Nürnberg, match 9, 24 October 2026: vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0-1 → 2nd1. FC Nürnberg, match 10, 1 November 2026: at FC St. Pauli 1-3 → 2nd1. FC Nürnberg, match 11, 7 November 2026: vs SV Darmstadt 98 2-0 → 2nd 1234567891011 151018 1. FC Heidenheim, match 1, 8 August 2026: vs VfL Osnabrück 4-3 → 1st1. FC Heidenheim, match 2, 15 August 2026: at Hertha BSC 4-1 → 7th1. FC Heidenheim, match 3, 29 August 2026: vs Dynamo Dresden 5-3 → 3rd1. FC Heidenheim, match 4, 6 September 2026: at SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-1 → 3rd1. FC Heidenheim, match 5, 13 September 2026: vs Holstein Kiel 1-0 → 3rd1. FC Heidenheim, match 6, 20 September 2026: at Arminia Bielefeld 2-2 → 3rd1. FC Heidenheim, match 7, 9 October 2026: vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0-0 → 3rd1. FC Heidenheim, match 8, 17 October 2026: at VfL Wolfsburg 3-1 → 5th1. FC Heidenheim, match 9, 24 October 2026: vs Energie Cottbus 1-1 → 5th1. FC Heidenheim, match 10, 31 October 2026: at Karlsruher SC 2-1 → 6th1. FC Heidenheim, match 11, 8 November 2026: vs Hannover 96 2-2 → 7th1. FC Nürnberg, match 1, 9 August 2026: vs Dynamo Dresden 3-0 → 2nd1. FC Nürnberg, match 2, 15 August 2026: at SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-4 → 1st1. FC Nürnberg, match 3, 29 August 2026: vs Arminia Bielefeld 4-1 → 1st1. FC Nürnberg, match 4, 5 September 2026: at Holstein Kiel 2-2 → 1st1. FC Nürnberg, match 5, 11 September 2026: vs Hannover 96 2-1 → 1st1. FC Nürnberg, match 6, 19 September 2026: at Karlsruher SC 0-1 → 1st1. FC Nürnberg, match 7, 10 October 2026: vs VfL Wolfsburg 4-4 → 2nd1. FC Nürnberg, match 8, 16 October 2026: at Energie Cottbus 1-1 → 2nd1. FC Nürnberg, match 9, 24 October 2026: vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0-1 → 2nd1. FC Nürnberg, match 10, 1 November 2026: at FC St. Pauli 1-3 → 2nd1. FC Nürnberg, match 11, 7 November 2026: vs SV Darmstadt 98 2-0 → 2nd 1234567891011

1. FC Heidenheim are 7th after 11 2. Bundesliga matches (between 1st and 7th so far); 1. FC Nürnberg are 2nd after 11 (between 1st and 2nd). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: 1. FC Heidenheim 11, 1. FC Nürnberg 11.

1. FC Heidenheim scored 233326
1. FC Nürnberg conceded 322403

1. FC Heidenheim score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); 1. FC Nürnberg have let in 3 there.

1. FC Nürnberg scored 334564
1. FC Heidenheim conceded 344135

1. FC Nürnberg score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); 1. FC Heidenheim have let in 3 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

1. FC Heidenheim

  • at FC St. Pauli6 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 33%
  • at VfL Bochum13 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 31%
  • vs Eintracht Braunschweig20 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 47%
  • at 1. FC Magdeburg16 Jan · 2. Bundesligawin 23%

1. FC Nürnberg

  • vs VfL Bochum5 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 53%
  • at 1. FC Magdeburg11 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 33%
  • vs VfL Osnabrück18 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 57%
  • at Hertha BSC16 Jan · 2. Bundesligawin 29%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.