Regular Season - 12 · 22 November 2026, 12:30 UTC

1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Dynamo Dresden 2. Bundesliga prediction

Fritz Walter Stadion, Kaiserslautern

Our model says: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1–0 Dynamo Dresden

The model makes it 46% 1. FC Kaiserslautern, 28% draw, 26% Dynamo Dresden — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.50, Dynamo Dresden 1.01.

Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published 8 November 2026 · updated 12 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. 1. FC Kaiserslautern's rating is built from 45 2. Bundesliga matches and Dynamo Dresden's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 715 matches.

Key facts

1. FC Kaiserslautern are 3rd on 21 points from 11 games; Dynamo Dresden are 15th on 11 points from 11 games — 2. Bundesliga.
1. FC Kaiserslautern have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to VfL Osnabrück.
Dynamo Dresden have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Last 6 meetings: Dynamo Dresden 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 May 2026, ended Dynamo Dresden 1–0 1. FC Kaiserslautern.

More 2. Bundesliga predictions

All 2. Bundesliga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Dynamo Dresden

50%

Both teams to score

46%

Over 2.5 goals

54%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

1. FC Kaiserslautern win Draw Dynamo Dresden win

1–113%
1–012%
2–19%
2–09%
0–09%
0–18%
1–26%

Scores read 1. FC Kaiserslautern first; the other scorelines share the remaining 34%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

1. FC Kaiserslautern at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Dynamo Dresden

1. FC Kaiserslautern

2. Bundesliga

W1-0away to VfL Osnabrück7 November 2026
L0-3Hertha BSC31 October 2026
W1-0away to 1. FC Nürnberg24 October 2026
W2-0VfL Bochum17 October 2026
D0-0away to 1. FC Heidenheim9 October 2026

Dynamo Dresden

2. Bundesliga

W3-0SpVgg Greuther Fürth6 November 2026
L1-2away to Hannover 961 November 2026
L0-3away to Holstein Kiel25 October 2026
W2-01. FC Magdeburg18 October 2026
D1-1away to VfL Osnabrück10 October 2026

What these results say

1. FC Kaiserslautern kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
4 of these 5 matches for 1. FC Kaiserslautern had two goals or fewer.
Dynamo Dresden scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

2. Bundesliga table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
3	1. FC Kaiserslautern	11	6	3	2	10	7	+3	21
15	Dynamo Dresden	11	3	2	6	15	20	-5	11

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

1. FC Kaiserslautern

Chance to finish in the top two · 13% today

Win 15%

Draw 10%

Defeat 8%

Dynamo Dresden

Chance to finish in the bottom two · 12% today

Win 6%

Draw 12%

Defeat 13%

From our 2. Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Dynamo Dresden

2 May 2026Dynamo Dresden 1–0 1. FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga
6 December 20251. FC Kaiserslautern 3–1 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
10 January 2024Dynamo Dresden 3–0 1. FC KaiserslauternFriendlies Clubs
24 May 2022Dynamo Dresden 0–2 FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga
20 May 2022FC Kaiserslautern 0–0 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
23 January 2021Dynamo Dresden 4–3 FC Kaiserslautern3. Liga

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives 1. FC Kaiserslautern a 2.6% chance of the title and Dynamo Dresden 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

1. FC Kaiserslautern Dynamo Dresden

0.57 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.73

0.99 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.52

1.50 Model expected goals (this match) 1.01

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives 1. FC Kaiserslautern the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for 1. FC Kaiserslautern against 1.01 for Dynamo Dresden. 1. FC Kaiserslautern's attack/defence rating is 0.57/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.52 for Dynamo Dresden.

1. FC Kaiserslautern carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.48 for Dynamo Dresden. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 46% for 1. FC Kaiserslautern to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for 1. FC Kaiserslautern to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, 1. FC Kaiserslautern's ratings change nothing and Dynamo Dresden's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 46%.

Two average sides, neutral ground37%
Home advantage43%+6
Both sides at this match's level41%−2
1. FC Kaiserslautern's ratings41%±0
Dynamo Dresden's ratings46%+5

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

1. FC KaiserslauternModelDynamo Dresden

Over 1.5 goals

50%

5 of 10 games

72%

model, this match

90%

9 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

40%

4 of 10 games

46%

model, this match

70%

7 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

0 of 10 games

24%

model, this match

20%

2 of 10 games

Both teams score

10%

1 of 10 games

50%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

1. FC KaiserslauternDynamo Dresden

11Matches11

6W 3D 2LRecord3W 2D 6L

10 0.9 per gameGoals scored15 1.4 per game

7 0.6 per gameGoals conceded20 1.8 per game

8 of 11Clean sheets3 of 11

5 of 11Failed to score2 of 11

1 of 1Penalties scored1 of 2

25 2.3 per gameYellow cards20 1.8 per game

0Red cards2

3-4-2-1 9×Usual shape4-2-3-1 11×

1. FC Kaiserslautern at home · Dynamo Dresden away

5Played6

3W 1D 1LRecord0W 2D 4L

6–3Goals for – against7–16

4 of 5Clean sheets0 of 6

League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

1. FC KaiserslauternDynamo Dresden

1. FC Kaiserslautern are 3rd after 11 2. Bundesliga matches (between 3rd and 11th so far); Dynamo Dresden are 15th after 11 (between 11th and 18th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 11, Dynamo Dresden 11.

1. FC Kaiserslautern scored 012331

Dynamo Dresden conceded 421156

Dynamo Dresden scored 514222

1. FC Kaiserslautern conceded 120400

Dynamo Dresden score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); 1. FC Kaiserslautern have let in 1 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

1. FC Kaiserslautern

at Holstein Kiel28 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 35%
vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth5 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 49%
at Arminia Bielefeld11 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 32%
at Hannover 9620 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 34%
vs Energie Cottbus17 Jan · 2. Bundesligawin 47%

Dynamo Dresden

vs FC St. Pauli28 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 45%
at Arminia Bielefeld4 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 28%
vs Energie Cottbus12 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 46%
at Karlsruher SC19 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 39%
vs VfL Wolfsburg17 Jan · 2. Bundesligawin 33%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.