Regular Season - 12 · 20 November 2026, 17:30 UTC

Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Magdeburg 2. Bundesliga prediction

Bielefeld

Our model says: Arminia Bielefeld 2–1 1. FC Magdeburg

The model makes it 39% Arminia Bielefeld, 24% draw, 37% 1. FC Magdeburg — fair odds of 2.56, 4.17 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Arminia Bielefeld 1.87, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.81.

Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.

A tight game: Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Magdeburg are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.

Published 6 November 2026 · updated 10 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. Arminia Bielefeld's rating is built from 45 2. Bundesliga matches and 1. FC Magdeburg's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 715 matches.

Key facts

Arminia Bielefeld are 6th on 17 points from 11 games; 1. FC Magdeburg are 4th on 20 points from 11 games — 2. Bundesliga.
Arminia Bielefeld have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Holstein Kiel.
1. FC Magdeburg are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to FC St. Pauli.
Last 6 meetings: Arminia Bielefeld 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 15 February 2026, ended 1. FC Magdeburg 0–2 Arminia Bielefeld.

More 2. Bundesliga predictions

All 2. Bundesliga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Magdeburg

71%

Both teams to score

71%

Over 2.5 goals

29%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Arminia Bielefeld win Draw 1. FC Magdeburg win

1–19%
2–18%
1–28%
2–27%
3–15%
1–35%
3–25%

Scores read Arminia Bielefeld first; the other scorelines share the remaining 54%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Arminia Bielefeld at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Magdeburg

Arminia Bielefeld

2. Bundesliga

W2-1away to Holstein Kiel7 November 2026
W3-1Eintracht Braunschweig30 October 2026
L0-1away to Hertha BSC24 October 2026
W2-1VfL Osnabrück18 October 2026
W1-0away to VfL Bochum11 October 2026

1. FC Magdeburg

2. Bundesliga

W4-1FC St. Pauli8 November 2026
D1-1away to SV Darmstadt 9831 October 2026
W6-1Karlsruher SC24 October 2026
L0-2away to Dynamo Dresden18 October 2026
W3-0Hannover 9610 October 2026

What these results say

Arminia Bielefeld won 4 of these 5 matches.
Arminia Bielefeld scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Arminia Bielefeld conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
1. FC Magdeburg scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
1. FC Magdeburg conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

2. Bundesliga table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
6	Arminia Bielefeld	11	5	2	4	18	16	+2	17
4	1. FC Magdeburg	11	6	2	3	25	14	+11	20

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Arminia Bielefeld

Chance to finish in the top two · 5% today

Win 7%

Draw 4%

Defeat 3%

1. FC Magdeburg

Chance to finish in the top two · 19% today

Win 24%

Draw 18%

Defeat 15%

From our 2. Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Magdeburg

15 February 20261. FC Magdeburg 0–2 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
12 September 2025Arminia Bielefeld 2–0 1. FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga
28 May 2023FC Magdeburg 4–0 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
13 November 2022Arminia Bielefeld 3–1 FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga
17 February 2019Arminia Bielefeld 1–3 FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga
17 September 2018FC Magdeburg 0–0 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga

Leading scorers: Arminia Bielefeld and 1. FC Magdeburg

Arminia Bielefeld

GoalsAssists

J. Grodowski72

1. FC Magdeburg

GoalsAssists

E. Iyoha60
M. Żukowski60

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour 1. FC Magdeburg (fourth, with Arminia Bielefeld sixth), while our numbers lean to Arminia Bielefeld. Arminia Bielefeld rate 0.77 in attack and 1.41 in defence, 1. FC Magdeburg 0.92 and 1.40 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Arminia Bielefeld a 1% chance of the title and 1. FC Magdeburg 5.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Arminia Bielefeld 1. FC Magdeburg

0.77 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.92

1.41 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.4

1.87 Model expected goals (this match) 1.81

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Arminia Bielefeld the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld against 1.81 for 1. FC Magdeburg. Arminia Bielefeld's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.4 for 1. FC Magdeburg.

Arminia Bielefeld carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.65 for 1. FC Magdeburg. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 39% for Arminia Bielefeld to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Arminia Bielefeld to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Arminia Bielefeld's ratings take away 3 points and 1. FC Magdeburg's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 39%.

Two average sides, neutral ground37%
Home advantage43%+6
Both sides at this match's level44%+1
Arminia Bielefeld's ratings41%−3
1. FC Magdeburg's ratings39%−2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

Arminia BielefeldModel1. FC Magdeburg

Over 1.5 goals

80%

8 of 10 games

89%

model, this match

100%

10 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

80%

8 of 10 games

71%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

40%

4 of 10 games

50%

model, this match

20%

2 of 10 games

Both teams score

70%

7 of 10 games

71%

model, this match

50%

5 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

Arminia Bielefeld1. FC Magdeburg

11Matches11

5W 2D 4LRecord6W 2D 3L

18 1.6 per gameGoals scored25 2.3 per game

16 1.5 per gameGoals conceded14 1.3 per game

2 of 11Clean sheets4 of 11

1 of 11Failed to score1 of 11

1 of 2Penalties scored2 of 2

26 2.4 per gameYellow cards24 2.2 per game

0Red cards2

4-4-2 3×Usual shape4-3-3 10×

Arminia Bielefeld at home · 1. FC Magdeburg away

5Played5

3W 2D 0LRecord1W 2D 2L

12–6Goals for – against6–6

1 of 5Clean sheets1 of 5

League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

Arminia Bielefeld1. FC Magdeburg

Arminia Bielefeld are 6th after 11 2. Bundesliga matches (between 5th and 17th so far); 1. FC Magdeburg are 4th after 11 (between 3rd and 18th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: Arminia Bielefeld 11, 1. FC Magdeburg 11.

Arminia Bielefeld scored 241216

1. FC Magdeburg conceded 332411

Arminia Bielefeld score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); 1. FC Magdeburg have let in 1 there.

1. FC Magdeburg scored 434634

Arminia Bielefeld conceded 343224

1. FC Magdeburg score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Arminia Bielefeld have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Arminia Bielefeld

at SpVgg Greuther Fürth29 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 40%
vs Dynamo Dresden4 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 48%
vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern11 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 39%
at VfL Wolfsburg19 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 25%
vs Hannover 9615 Jan · 2. Bundesligawin 47%

1. FC Magdeburg

vs Energie Cottbus29 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 57%
at VfL Wolfsburg6 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 30%
vs 1. FC Nürnberg11 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 43%
at VfL Bochum19 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 40%
vs 1. FC Heidenheim16 Jan · 2. Bundesligawin 56%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.