Energie Cottbus
vs
Hertha BSC
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Energie Cottbus 1–2 Hertha BSC
The model makes it 29% Energie Cottbus, 25% draw, 46% Hertha BSC — fair odds of 3.45, 4.00 and 2.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Energie Cottbus 1.38, Hertha BSC 1.87.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Edge to Hertha BSC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Energie Cottbus's rating is built from 11 2. Bundesliga matches and Hertha BSC's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 715 matches.
Key facts
- Energie Cottbus are 12th on 11 points from 11 games; Hertha BSC are top on 31 points from 11 games — 2. Bundesliga.
- Energie Cottbus have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Eintracht Braunschweig.
- Hertha BSC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to VfL Wolfsburg.
- Last 4 meetings: Hertha BSC 2 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 16 July 2024, ended Energie Cottbus 2–2 Hertha BSC.
More 2. Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Energie Cottbus vs Hertha BSC
Has the model earned this number?
Hertha BSC at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Energie Cottbus vs Hertha BSC
Energie Cottbus
2. Bundesliga
- D0-0away to Eintracht Braunschweig6 November 2026
- L1-2VfL Bochum30 October 2026
- D1-1away to 1. FC Heidenheim24 October 2026
- D1-11. FC Nürnberg16 October 2026
- L1-3away to SV Darmstadt 9810 October 2026
Hertha BSC
2. Bundesliga
- W2-1VfL Wolfsburg7 November 2026
- W3-0away to 1. FC Kaiserslautern31 October 2026
- W1-0Arminia Bielefeld24 October 2026
- D0-0away to Holstein Kiel16 October 2026
- W2-1SpVgg Greuther Fürth11 October 2026
What these results say
- Energie Cottbus did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Energie Cottbus scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Energie Cottbus conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hertha BSC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Hertha BSC won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hertha BSC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Energie Cottbus | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 11 |
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 9 | +16 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Energie Cottbus
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 11% today
Hertha BSC
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 65% today
From our 2. Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Energie Cottbus vs Hertha BSC
- 16 July 2024Energie Cottbus 2–2 Hertha BSCFriendlies Clubs
- 8 July 2022Energie Cottbus 1–5 Hertha BerlinFriendlies Clubs
- 19 May 2013Hertha Berlin 1–1 Energie Cottbus2. Bundesliga
- 3 December 2012Energie Cottbus 1–2 Hertha Berlin2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: Energie Cottbus and Hertha BSC
Energie Cottbus
GoalsAssists
- T. Ciğerci52
- J. Butler51
Hertha BSC
GoalsAssists
- J. Brekalo55
- O. Adewumi50
- S. Grønning41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Energie Cottbus a 0% chance of the title and Hertha BSC 64.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hertha BSC the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Energie Cottbus against 1.87 for Hertha BSC. Energie Cottbus's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1.12 for Hertha BSC.
How the model reaches 46% for Hertha BSC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Hertha BSC to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Energie Cottbus's ratings add 8 points and Hertha BSC's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage31%−6
- Energie Cottbus's ratings39%+8
- Hertha BSC's ratings46%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Energie Cottbus at home · Hertha BSC away
League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Energie CottbusHertha BSC
Energie Cottbus are 12th after 11 2. Bundesliga matches (between 2nd and 11th so far); Hertha BSC are 1st after 11 (between 1st and 2nd). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: Energie Cottbus 11, Hertha BSC 11.
Hertha BSC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Energie Cottbus have let in 8 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Energie Cottbus
- at 1. FC Magdeburg29 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 22%
- vs VfL Osnabrück4 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 44%
- at Dynamo Dresden12 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 30%
- vs Holstein Kiel18 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 43%
- at 1. FC Kaiserslautern17 Jan · 2. Bundesligawin 25%
Hertha BSC
- vs Karlsruher SC28 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 67%
- at Hannover 965 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 44%
- vs SV Darmstadt 9812 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 64%
- at FC St. Pauli19 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 46%
- vs 1. FC Nürnberg16 Jan · 2. Bundesligawin 46%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.