VfL Wolfsburg
vs
Holstein Kiel
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: VfL Wolfsburg 2–1 Holstein Kiel
The model makes it 57% VfL Wolfsburg, 23% draw, 20% Holstein Kiel — fair odds of 1.75, 4.35 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: VfL Wolfsburg 2.24, Holstein Kiel 1.12.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to VfL Wolfsburg: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. VfL Wolfsburg's rating is built from 11 2. Bundesliga matches and Holstein Kiel's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 715 matches.
Key facts
- VfL Wolfsburg are 5th on 19 points from 11 games; Holstein Kiel are bottom on 8 points from 11 games — 2. Bundesliga.
- VfL Wolfsburg have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Hertha BSC.
- Holstein Kiel have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Arminia Bielefeld.
- Last 5 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 1 draw; the most recent, 28 October 2025, ended VfL Wolfsburg 0–1 Holstein Kiel.
More 2. Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: VfL Wolfsburg vs Holstein Kiel
Has the model earned this number?
VfL Wolfsburg at 57%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into VfL Wolfsburg vs Holstein Kiel
VfL Wolfsburg
2. Bundesliga
- L1-2away to Hertha BSC7 November 2026
- W2-0VfL Osnabrück31 October 2026
- D1-1away to VfL Bochum23 October 2026
- W3-11. FC Heidenheim17 October 2026
- D4-4away to 1. FC Nürnberg10 October 2026
Holstein Kiel
2. Bundesliga
- L1-2Arminia Bielefeld7 November 2026
- L0-1away to SpVgg Greuther Fürth1 November 2026
- W3-0Dynamo Dresden25 October 2026
- D0-0Hertha BSC16 October 2026
- L0-1away to Eintracht Braunschweig9 October 2026
What these results say
- VfL Wolfsburg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- VfL Wolfsburg conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for VfL Wolfsburg.
- Holstein Kiel failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | VfL Wolfsburg | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 16 | +10 | 19 |
| 18 | Holstein Kiel | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
VfL Wolfsburg
Chance to finish in the top two · 30% today
Holstein Kiel
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 21% today
From our 2. Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: VfL Wolfsburg vs Holstein Kiel
- 28 October 2025VfL Wolfsburg 0–1 Holstein KielDFB Pokal
- 24 January 2025VfL Wolfsburg 2–2 Holstein KielBundesliga
- 31 August 2024Holstein Kiel 0–2 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
- 14 July 2021VfL Wolfsburg 0–1 Holstein KielFriendlies Clubs
- 22 August 2020VfL Wolfsburg 2–0 Holstein KielFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: VfL Wolfsburg and Holstein Kiel
VfL Wolfsburg
GoalsAssists
- F. Reese57
- R. Glatzel51
- A. Bernhardsson43
Holstein Kiel
GoalsAssists
- P. Harres53
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives VfL Wolfsburg a 9.7% chance of the title and Holstein Kiel 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives VfL Wolfsburg the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.24 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg against 1.12 for Holstein Kiel. VfL Wolfsburg's attack/defence rating is 1/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.29 for Holstein Kiel.
How the model reaches 57% for VfL Wolfsburg to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for VfL Wolfsburg to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, VfL Wolfsburg's ratings add 9 points and Holstein Kiel's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 57%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- VfL Wolfsburg's ratings52%+9
- Holstein Kiel's ratings57%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
VfL Wolfsburg at home · Holstein Kiel away
League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
VfL WolfsburgHolstein Kiel
VfL Wolfsburg are 5th after 11 2. Bundesliga matches (between 2nd and 8th so far); Holstein Kiel are 18th after 11 (between 2nd and 18th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: VfL Wolfsburg 11, Holstein Kiel 11.
VfL Wolfsburg score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Holstein Kiel have let in 6 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
VfL Wolfsburg
- at Eintracht Braunschweig29 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 48%
- vs 1. FC Magdeburg6 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 48%
- at SpVgg Greuther Fürth13 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 49%
- vs Arminia Bielefeld19 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 53%
- at Dynamo Dresden17 Jan · 2. Bundesligawin 44%
Holstein Kiel
- vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern28 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 33%
- at Karlsruher SC5 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 36%
- vs Hannover 9612 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 39%
- at Energie Cottbus18 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 30%
- vs VfL Bochum16 Jan · 2. Bundesligawin 39%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.