Karlsruher SC
vs
VfL Osnabrück
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Karlsruher SC 2–1 VfL Osnabrück
The model makes it 39% Karlsruher SC, 25% draw, 36% VfL Osnabrück — fair odds of 2.56, 4.00 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Karlsruher SC 1.79, VfL Osnabrück 1.67.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
A tight game: Karlsruher SC and VfL Osnabrück are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Karlsruher SC's rating is built from 45 2. Bundesliga matches and VfL Osnabrück's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 715 matches.
Key facts
- Karlsruher SC are 16th on 11 points from 11 games; VfL Osnabrück are 14th on 11 points from 11 games — 2. Bundesliga.
- Karlsruher SC have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to VfL Bochum.
- VfL Osnabrück have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to 1. FC Kaiserslautern.
- Last 6 meetings: Karlsruher SC 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 19 January 2024, ended Karlsruher SC 2–1 VfL Osnabrück.
More 2. Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Karlsruher SC vs VfL Osnabrück
Has the model earned this number?
Karlsruher SC at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Karlsruher SC vs VfL Osnabrück
Karlsruher SC
2. Bundesliga
- L2-3away to VfL Bochum8 November 2026
- W2-11. FC Heidenheim31 October 2026
- L1-6away to 1. FC Magdeburg24 October 2026
- W4-0SV Darmstadt 9818 October 2026
- L0-2away to FC St. Pauli11 October 2026
VfL Osnabrück
2. Bundesliga
- L0-11. FC Kaiserslautern7 November 2026
- L0-2away to VfL Wolfsburg31 October 2026
- W3-0SpVgg Greuther Fürth25 October 2026
- L1-2away to Arminia Bielefeld18 October 2026
- D1-1Dynamo Dresden10 October 2026
What these results say
- Karlsruher SC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Karlsruher SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Karlsruher SC had three goals or more.
- VfL Osnabrück failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- VfL Osnabrück conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Karlsruher SC | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 11 |
| 14 | VfL Osnabrück | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Karlsruher SC
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 31% today
VfL Osnabrück
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 18% today
From our 2. Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Karlsruher SC vs VfL Osnabrück
- 19 January 2024Karlsruher SC 2–1 VfL Osnabrück2. Bundesliga
- 29 July 2023VfL Osnabrück 2–3 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
- 3 April 2021Karlsruher SC 0–1 VfL Osnabrück2. Bundesliga
- 5 December 2020VfL Osnabrück 1–2 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
- 16 February 2020Karlsruher SC 1–1 VfL Osnabrück2. Bundesliga
- 1 September 2019VfL Osnabrück 3–0 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: Karlsruher SC and VfL Osnabrück
Karlsruher SC
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
VfL Osnabrück
GoalsAssists
- R. Meißner41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour VfL Osnabrück (14th, with Karlsruher SC 16th), while our numbers lean to Karlsruher SC. Karlsruher SC rate 0.71 in attack and 1.90 in defence, VfL Osnabrück 0.63 and 1.45 (lower is better in defence), so Karlsruher SC have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Karlsruher SC the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Karlsruher SC against 1.67 for VfL Osnabrück. Karlsruher SC's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.9 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.45 for VfL Osnabrück.
How the model reaches 39% for Karlsruher SC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Karlsruher SC to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Karlsruher SC's ratings take away 2 points and VfL Osnabrück's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Both sides at this match's level44%+1
- Karlsruher SC's ratings42%−2
- VfL Osnabrück's ratings39%−3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Karlsruher SC at home · VfL Osnabrück away
League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Karlsruher SCVfL Osnabrück
Karlsruher SC are 16th after 11 2. Bundesliga matches (between 2nd and 17th so far); VfL Osnabrück are 14th after 11 (between 8th and 18th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: Karlsruher SC 11, VfL Osnabrück 11.
Karlsruher SC score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); VfL Osnabrück have let in 1 there.
VfL Osnabrück score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Karlsruher SC have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Karlsruher SC
- at Hertha BSC28 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 15%
- vs Holstein Kiel5 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 38%
- at Eintracht Braunschweig12 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 29%
- vs Dynamo Dresden19 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 37%
- at SpVgg Greuther Fürth15 Jan · 2. Bundesligawin 30%
VfL Osnabrück
- vs Hannover 9628 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 40%
- at Energie Cottbus4 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 30%
- vs FC St. Pauli13 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 42%
- at 1. FC Nürnberg18 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 20%
- vs SV Darmstadt 9817 Jan · 2. Bundesligawin 47%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.