FC St. Pauli
vs
VfL Bochum
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: FC St. Pauli 1–0 VfL Bochum
The model makes it 39% FC St. Pauli, 29% draw, 32% VfL Bochum — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FC St. Pauli 1.34, VfL Bochum 1.18.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. FC St. Pauli's rating is built from 11 2. Bundesliga matches and VfL Bochum's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 715 matches.
Key facts
- FC St. Pauli are 9th on 12 points from 11 games; VfL Bochum are 8th on 14 points from 11 games — 2. Bundesliga.
- FC St. Pauli are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to 1. FC Magdeburg.
- VfL Bochum are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Karlsruher SC.
- Last 6 meetings: VfL Bochum 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 May 2025, ended FC St. Pauli 0–2 VfL Bochum.
More 2. Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC St. Pauli vs VfL Bochum
Has the model earned this number?
FC St. Pauli at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC St. Pauli vs VfL Bochum
FC St. Pauli
2. Bundesliga
- L1-4away to 1. FC Magdeburg8 November 2026
- L1-31. FC Nürnberg1 November 2026
- D0-0away to SV Darmstadt 9823 October 2026
- D1-1away to Hannover 9617 October 2026
- W2-0Karlsruher SC11 October 2026
VfL Bochum
2. Bundesliga
- W3-2Karlsruher SC8 November 2026
- W2-1away to Energie Cottbus30 October 2026
- D1-1VfL Wolfsburg23 October 2026
- L0-2away to 1. FC Kaiserslautern17 October 2026
- L0-1Arminia Bielefeld11 October 2026
What these results say
- FC St. Pauli failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC St. Pauli scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- VfL Bochum conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | FC St. Pauli | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 12 |
| 8 | VfL Bochum | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FC St. Pauli
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 11% today
From our 2. Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: FC St. Pauli vs VfL Bochum
- 17 May 2025FC St. Pauli 0–2 VfL BochumBundesliga
- 15 January 2025VfL Bochum 1–0 FC St. PauliBundesliga
- 28 January 2021FC St. Pauli 2–3 VfL Bochum2. Bundesliga
- 21 September 2020VfL Bochum 2–2 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
- 5 June 2020VfL Bochum 2–0 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
- 8 November 2019FC St. Pauli 1–1 VfL Bochum2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: FC St. Pauli and VfL Bochum
FC St. Pauli
GoalsAssists
- Abdoulie Ceesay50
VfL Bochum
GoalsAssists
- P. Hofmann50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour VfL Bochum (eighth, with FC St. Pauli ninth), while our numbers lean to FC St. Pauli. FC St. Pauli rate 0.60 in attack and 1.38 in defence, VfL Bochum 0.61 and 1.29 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.
How the call on FC St. Pauli v VfL Bochum has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 41% / 30% / 29% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 39% / 29% / 32%: the biggest move is VfL Bochum's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- FC St. Pauli win39%▼ −2
- Draw29%▼ −1
- VfL Bochum win32%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC St. Pauli the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for FC St. Pauli against 1.18 for VfL Bochum. FC St. Pauli's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.29 for VfL Bochum.
How the model reaches 39% for FC St. Pauli to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for FC St. Pauli to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, FC St. Pauli's ratings take away 1 point and VfL Bochum's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Both sides at this match's level41%−2
- FC St. Pauli's ratings40%−1
- VfL Bochum's ratings39%−1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
FC St. Pauli at home · VfL Bochum away
League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
FC St. PauliVfL Bochum
FC St. Pauli are 9th after 11 2. Bundesliga matches (between 7th and 16th so far); VfL Bochum are 8th after 11 (between 6th and 18th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: FC St. Pauli 11, VfL Bochum 11.
FC St. Pauli score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); VfL Bochum have let in 1 there.
VfL Bochum score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); FC St. Pauli have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
FC St. Pauli
- at Dynamo Dresden28 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 29%
- vs 1. FC Heidenheim6 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 41%
- at VfL Osnabrück13 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 30%
- vs Hertha BSC19 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 27%
- at Eintracht Braunschweig16 Jan · 2. Bundesligawin 32%
VfL Bochum
- vs SV Darmstadt 9827 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 48%
- at 1. FC Nürnberg5 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 22%
- vs 1. FC Heidenheim13 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 43%
- vs 1. FC Magdeburg19 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 34%
- at Holstein Kiel16 Jan · 2. Bundesligawin 31%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.