Regular Season - 12 · 20 November 2026, 17:30 UTC

SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim 2. Bundesliga prediction

Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor, Darmstadt

Our model says: SV Darmstadt 98 1–2 1. FC Heidenheim

The model makes it 36% SV Darmstadt 98, 26% draw, 38% 1. FC Heidenheim — fair odds of 2.78, 3.85 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: SV Darmstadt 98 1.57, 1. FC Heidenheim 1.62.

Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.

A tight game: SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Heidenheim are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.

Published 6 November 2026 · updated 10 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. SV Darmstadt 98's rating is built from 45 2. Bundesliga matches and 1. FC Heidenheim's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 715 matches.

Key facts

SV Darmstadt 98 are 17th on 9 points from 11 games; 1. FC Heidenheim are 7th on 16 points from 11 games — 2. Bundesliga.
SV Darmstadt 98 are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to 1. FC Nürnberg.
1. FC Heidenheim have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Hannover 96.
Last 6 meetings: 1. FC Heidenheim 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 28 April 2024, ended SV Darmstadt 98 0–1 FC Heidenheim.

More 2. Bundesliga predictions

All 2. Bundesliga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim

64%

Both teams to score

62%

Over 2.5 goals

38%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

SV Darmstadt 98 win Draw 1. FC Heidenheim win

1–111%
1–28%
2–18%
2–27%
0–16%
1–06%
0–25%

Scores read SV Darmstadt 98 first; the other scorelines share the remaining 49%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

1. FC Heidenheim at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim

SV Darmstadt 98

2. Bundesliga

L0-2away to 1. FC Nürnberg7 November 2026
D1-11. FC Magdeburg31 October 2026
D0-0FC St. Pauli23 October 2026
L0-4away to Karlsruher SC18 October 2026
W3-1Energie Cottbus10 October 2026

1. FC Heidenheim

2. Bundesliga

D2-2Hannover 968 November 2026
L1-2away to Karlsruher SC31 October 2026
D1-1Energie Cottbus24 October 2026
L1-3away to VfL Wolfsburg17 October 2026
D0-01. FC Kaiserslautern9 October 2026

What these results say

SV Darmstadt 98 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
SV Darmstadt 98 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
1. FC Heidenheim did not win any of these 5 matches.
1. FC Heidenheim scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
1. FC Heidenheim conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

2. Bundesliga table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
17	SV Darmstadt 98	11	2	3	6	9	21	-12	9
7	1. FC Heidenheim	11	4	4	3	19	20	-1	16

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

SV Darmstadt 98

Chance to finish in the bottom two · 42% today

Win 34%

Draw 43%

Defeat 49%

From our 2. Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Heidenheim

28 April 2024SV Darmstadt 98 0–1 FC HeidenheimBundesliga
9 December 2023FC Heidenheim 3–2 SV Darmstadt 98Bundesliga
4 March 2023FC Heidenheim 1–0 SV Darmstadt 982. Bundesliga
27 August 2022SV Darmstadt 98 2–2 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
4 March 2022SV Darmstadt 98 3–2 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
24 September 2021FC Heidenheim 2–1 SV Darmstadt 982. Bundesliga

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 0% chance of the title and 1. FC Heidenheim 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

SV Darmstadt 98 1. FC Heidenheim

0.57 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.74

1.57 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.59

1.57 Model expected goals (this match) 1.62

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives 1. FC Heidenheim the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 against 1.62 for 1. FC Heidenheim. SV Darmstadt 98's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.59 for 1. FC Heidenheim.

SV Darmstadt 98 carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.47 for 1. FC Heidenheim. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 38% for 1. FC Heidenheim to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for 1. FC Heidenheim to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, SV Darmstadt 98's ratings add 3 points and 1. FC Heidenheim's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 38%.

Two average sides, neutral ground37%
Home advantage31%−6
SV Darmstadt 98's ratings34%+3
1. FC Heidenheim's ratings38%+4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

SV Darmstadt 98Model1. FC Heidenheim

Over 1.5 goals

70%

7 of 10 games

83%

model, this match

70%

7 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

50%

5 of 10 games

62%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

30%

3 of 10 games

40%

model, this match

50%

5 of 10 games

Both teams score

40%

4 of 10 games

64%

model, this match

70%

7 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

SV Darmstadt 981. FC Heidenheim

11Matches11

2W 3D 6LRecord4W 4D 3L

9 0.8 per gameGoals scored19 1.7 per game

21 1.9 per gameGoals conceded20 1.8 per game

1 of 11Clean sheets3 of 11

6 of 11Failed to score1 of 11

1 of 2Penalties scored1 of 1

25 2.3 per gameYellow cards16 1.5 per game

2Red cards0

4-2-3-1 5×Usual shape4-4-2 8×

SV Darmstadt 98 at home · 1. FC Heidenheim away

6Played5

2W 3D 1LRecord1W 1D 3L

8–6Goals for – against6–11

1 of 6Clean sheets1 of 5

League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

SV Darmstadt 981. FC Heidenheim

SV Darmstadt 98 are 17th after 11 2. Bundesliga matches (between 3rd and 18th so far); 1. FC Heidenheim are 7th after 11 (between 1st and 7th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: SV Darmstadt 98 11, 1. FC Heidenheim 11.

SV Darmstadt 98 scored 112005

1. FC Heidenheim conceded 344135

SV Darmstadt 98 score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); 1. FC Heidenheim have let in 5 there.

1. FC Heidenheim scored 233326

SV Darmstadt 98 conceded 703443

1. FC Heidenheim score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); SV Darmstadt 98 have let in 3 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

SV Darmstadt 98

at VfL Bochum27 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 25%
vs Eintracht Braunschweig6 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 39%
at Hertha BSC12 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 15%
vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth20 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 40%
at VfL Osnabrück17 Jan · 2. Bundesligawin 27%

1. FC Heidenheim

vs 1. FC Nürnberg27 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 33%
at FC St. Pauli6 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 33%
at VfL Bochum13 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 31%
vs Eintracht Braunschweig20 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 47%
at 1. FC Magdeburg16 Jan · 2. Bundesligawin 23%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.