Feirense
vs
Portimonense
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: Feirense 1–0 Portimonense
The model makes it 36% Feirense, 34% draw, 30% Portimonense — fair odds of 2.78, 2.94 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Feirense 0.97, Portimonense 0.85.
Both teams to score: 36%. Over 2.5 goals: 27%, under 2.5: 73%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,308 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. Feirense's rating is built from 44 Liga Portugal 2 matches and Portimonense's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Feirense are bottom on 5 points from 10 games; Portimonense are 10th on 14 points from 10 games — Segunda Liga.
- Feirense have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Lusitânia Lourosa.
- Portimonense have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to FC Porto B.
- Last 6 meetings: Feirense 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 January 2026, ended Portimonense 0–1 Feirense.
More Liga Portugal 2 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Feirense vs Portimonense
Has the model earned this number?
Feirense at 36%: of 4,766 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Feirense vs Portimonense
Feirense
Segunda Liga
- W1-0Lusitânia Lourosa8 November 2026
- L0-1away to Penafiel2 November 2026
- D0-0Benfica B24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Farense11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Chaves13 September 2026
Portimonense
Segunda Liga
- W1-0away to FC Porto B8 November 2026
- D0-0Torreense31 October 2026
- L0-3away to Sporting CP B24 October 2026
- W2-1away to Amarante10 October 2026
- L0-2Tondela12 September 2026
What these results say
- Feirense failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Feirense had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Feirense | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 5 |
| 10 | Portimonense | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Feirense vs Portimonense
- 25 January 2026Portimonense 0–1 FeirenseSegunda Liga
- 15 August 2025Feirense 4–1 PortimonenseSegunda Liga
- 14 March 2025Portimonense 1–2 FeirenseSegunda Liga
- 26 October 2024Feirense 1–1 PortimonenseSegunda Liga
- 27 April 2019Portimonense 1–0 FeirensePrimeira Liga
- 22 December 2018Feirense 0–1 PortimonensePrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Feirense and Portimonense
Feirense
GoalsAssists
- J. Monteiro10
Portimonense
GoalsAssists
- Danio Djassi11
- Welinton Júnior10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Portimonense (10th, with Feirense 18th), while our numbers lean to Feirense. Feirense rate 0.41 in attack and 1.38 in defence, Portimonense 0.51 and 1.45 (lower is better in defence), so Feirense have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 9-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Feirense a 0% chance of the title and Portimonense 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Feirense the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Feirense against 0.85 for Portimonense. Feirense's attack/defence rating is 0.41/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.45 for Portimonense.
How the model reaches 36% for Feirense to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Feirense to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 5 points, Feirense's ratings take away 2 points and Portimonense's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level39%−5
- Feirense's ratings37%−2
- Portimonense's ratings36%−1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Feirense at home · Portimonense away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: Feirense 10, Portimonense 10.
Portimonense score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Feirense have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Feirense
- at Leixoes4 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 24%
- vs União de Leiria12 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 32%
- at Torreense20 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 21%
- vs Tondela27 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 31%
Portimonense
- vs Felgueiras 19326 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 41%
- at AVS13 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 24%
- vs Lusitânia Lourosa20 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 38%
- at Farense27 Dec · Segunda Ligawin 23%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.