Internacional
vs
Vitoria
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Internacional 1–0 Vitoria
The model makes it 50% Internacional, 28% draw, 22% Vitoria — fair odds of 2.00, 3.57 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Internacional 1.54, Vitoria 0.83.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Internacional: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Internacional's rating is built from 72 Brazilian Serie A matches and Vitoria's from 72, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,099 matches.
Key facts
- Internacional are 16th on 38 points from 34 games; Vitoria are 15th on 38 points from 34 games — Serie A.
- Internacional have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Coritiba.
- Vitoria have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Fluminense.
- Last 6 meetings: Vitoria 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 23 May 2026, ended Vitoria 2–0 Internacional.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Internacional vs Vitoria
Has the model earned this number?
Internacional at 50%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Internacional vs Vitoria
Internacional
Serie A
- W1-0Coritiba4 November 2026
- L1-2away to Fluminense28 October 2026
- W3-0Botafogo24 October 2026
- L0-2away to Mirassol16 October 2026
- D1-1away to Gremio11 October 2026
Vitoria
Serie A
- L0-3Fluminense6 November 2026
- L0-2away to Coritiba31 October 2026
- D1-1Atletico Paranaense24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Corinthians19 October 2026
- L1-2away to Sao Paulo11 October 2026
What these results say
- Internacional scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vitoria did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Vitoria conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Internacional | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 38 |
| 15 | Vitoria | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Internacional
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 29% today
Vitoria
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 55% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Internacional vs Vitoria
Internacional and Vitoria have met 6 times in the records we hold, Vitoria has won 4 of them to Internacional's 2.
The record
Vitoria won the last one 2–0 on 23 May 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Internacional | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 9 |
| Vitoria | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 6 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 15 goals, an average of 2.50 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 23 May 2026
Serie AVitoria 2–0 Internacional - 5 Nov 2025
Serie AVitoria 1–0 Internacional - 12 Jul 2025
Serie AInternacional 1–0 Vitoria - 29 Sep 2024
Serie AInternacional 3–1 Vitoria - 16 Jun 2024
Serie AVitoria 2–1 Internacional - 11 Jun 2021
Copa Do BrasilInternacional 1–3 Vitoria
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Internacional's attack rates 15% above Vitoria's, and Internacional concede 12% fewer than Vitoria. That gives Internacional the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Internacional | 0.77 | 1.11 |
| Vitoria | 0.67 | 1.26 |
Leading scorers: Internacional and Vitoria
Internacional
GoalsAssists
- J. Carbonero74
Vitoria
GoalsAssists
- Rene101
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Vitoria (15th, with Internacional 16th), while our numbers lean to Internacional. Internacional rate 0.77 in attack and 1.11 in defence, Vitoria 0.67 and 1.26 (lower is better in defence), so Internacional have been the better side at both ends on recent expected goals, which the table does not yet show.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Internacional the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Internacional against 0.83 for Vitoria. Internacional's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.26 for Vitoria.
How the model reaches 50% for Internacional to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Internacional to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Internacional's ratings add 4 points and Vitoria's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 50%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage45%+9
- Both sides at this match's level43%−2
- Internacional's ratings47%+4
- Vitoria's ratings50%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Internacional at home · Vitoria away
League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Internacional 34, Vitoria 34.
Internacional score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Vitoria have let in 12 there.
Vitoria score most often in the 16–30 minute window (10 goals); Internacional have let in 8 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Internacional
- vs RB Bragantino29 Nov · Serie Awin 40%
- at Cruzeiro3 Dec · Serie Awin 20%
Vitoria
- vs Santos29 Nov · Serie Awin 32%
- at Vasco da Gama3 Dec · Serie Awin 21%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.