Botafogo
vs
Sao Paulo
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Botafogo 1–0 Sao Paulo
The model makes it 42% Botafogo, 30% draw, 28% Sao Paulo — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Botafogo 1.32, Sao Paulo 0.99.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Botafogo's rating is built from 72 Brazilian Serie A matches and Sao Paulo's from 72, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,099 matches.
Key facts
- Botafogo are 11th on 42 points from 34 games; Sao Paulo are 10th on 44 points from 34 games — Serie A.
- Botafogo have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Atletico Mineiro.
- Sao Paulo are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Corinthians.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 23 May 2026, ended Sao Paulo 1–1 Botafogo.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Botafogo vs Sao Paulo
Has the model earned this number?
Botafogo at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Botafogo vs Sao Paulo
Botafogo
Serie A
- W1-0Atletico Mineiro5 November 2026
- L1-2away to Remo29 October 2026
- L0-3away to Internacional24 October 2026
- W1-0Chapecoense17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Coritiba12 October 2026
Sao Paulo
Serie A
- D0-0Corinthians5 November 2026
- L2-3away to Bahia29 October 2026
- D1-1away to Mirassol24 October 2026
- W1-0Vasco da Gama18 October 2026
- W2-1Vitoria11 October 2026
What these results say
- Botafogo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sao Paulo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Botafogo | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 46 | 53 | -7 | 42 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 44 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Botafogo
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 3% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Botafogo vs Sao Paulo
- 23 May 2026Sao Paulo 1–1 BotafogoSerie A
- 14 September 2025Sao Paulo 1–0 BotafogoSerie A
- 16 April 2025Botafogo 2–2 Sao PauloSerie A
- 8 December 2024Botafogo 2–1 Sao PauloSerie A
- 26 September 2024Sao Paulo 1–1 BotafogoCONMEBOL Libertadores
- 19 September 2024Botafogo 0–0 Sao PauloCONMEBOL Libertadores
Leading scorers: Botafogo and Sao Paulo
Botafogo
GoalsAssists
- Danilo Santos102
Sao Paulo
GoalsAssists
- J. Calleri102
- Luciano91
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sao Paulo (10th, with Botafogo 11th), while our numbers lean to Botafogo. Botafogo rate 0.79 in attack and 1.21 in defence, Sao Paulo 0.73 and 1.05 (lower is better in defence), so Botafogo have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 2-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Botafogo the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Botafogo against 0.99 for Sao Paulo. Botafogo's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.05 for Sao Paulo.
How the model reaches 42% for Botafogo to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Botafogo to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Botafogo's ratings change nothing and Sao Paulo's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage45%+9
- Both sides at this match's level43%−2
- Botafogo's ratings43%±0
- Sao Paulo's ratings42%−1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Botafogo at home · Sao Paulo away
League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Botafogo 34, Sao Paulo 34.
Botafogo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Sao Paulo have let in 9 there.
Sao Paulo score most often in the 61–75 minute window (11 goals); Botafogo have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Botafogo
- vs Bahia29 Nov · Serie Awin 39%
- at Santos3 Dec · Serie Awin 21%
Sao Paulo
- vs Remo26 Nov · Serie Awin 50%
- at Atletico Paranaense3 Dec · Serie Awin 25%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.