Orgryte IS
vs
Kalmar FF
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: Orgryte IS 1–0 Kalmar FF
The model makes it 44% Orgryte IS, 27% draw, 29% Kalmar FF — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Orgryte IS 1.59, Kalmar FF 1.18.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Orgryte IS's rating is built from 30 Allsvenskan matches and Kalmar FF's from 28, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 708 matches.
Key facts
- Orgryte IS are 15th on 20 points from 28 games; Kalmar FF are 13th on 26 points from 28 games — Allsvenskan.
- Orgryte IS are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Vasteras SK FK.
- Kalmar FF have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Sirius.
- Last 5 meetings: Kalmar FF 3 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 5 July 2026, ended Kalmar FF 3–0 Orgryte IS.
More Allsvenskan predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Orgryte IS vs Kalmar FF
Has the model earned this number?
Orgryte IS at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Orgryte IS vs Kalmar FF
Orgryte IS
Allsvenskan
- D0-0Vasteras SK FK7 November 2026
- L1-2away to IF Elfsborg1 November 2026
- L1-2Mjallby AIF29 October 2026
- D2-2away to Djurgardens IF24 October 2026
- W4-2Gais18 October 2026
Kalmar FF
Allsvenskan
- W1-0Sirius8 November 2026
- D0-0away to Mjallby AIF2 November 2026
- L0-1Gais29 October 2026
- L0-3IF Brommapojkarna24 October 2026
- W2-1away to Degerfors IF19 October 2026
What these results say
- Orgryte IS failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Orgryte IS scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Orgryte IS conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Orgryte IS | 28 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 33 | 60 | -27 | 20 |
| 13 | Kalmar FF | 28 | 7 | 5 | 16 | 24 | 42 | -18 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Orgryte IS
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 47% today
From our Allsvenskan season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Orgryte IS vs Kalmar FF
- 5 July 2026Kalmar FF 3–0 Orgryte ISAllsvenskan
- 7 March 2026Kalmar FF 2–2 Orgryte ISSvenska Cupen
- 1 November 2025Orgryte IS 0–2 Kalmar FFSuperettan
- 22 June 2025Kalmar FF 2–3 Orgryte ISSuperettan
- 23 February 2020Kalmar FF 3–0 Orgryte ISSvenska Cupen
Leading scorers: Orgryte IS and Kalmar FF
Orgryte IS
GoalsAssists
- N. Christoffersson81
Kalmar FF
No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 24 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Kalmar FF (13th, with Orgryte IS 15th), while our numbers lean to Orgryte IS. Orgryte IS rate 0.61 in attack and 2.05 in defence, Kalmar FF 0.42 and 1.62 (lower is better in defence), so Orgryte IS have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 6-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Orgryte IS the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Orgryte IS against 1.18 for Kalmar FF. Orgryte IS's attack/defence rating is 0.61/2.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.42/1.62 for Kalmar FF.
How the model reaches 44% for Orgryte IS to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Orgryte IS to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Orgryte IS's ratings add 4 points and Kalmar FF's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Both sides at this match's level40%−1
- Orgryte IS's ratings44%+4
- Kalmar FF's ratings44%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Orgryte IS at home · Kalmar FF away
League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Allsvenskan matches this season: Orgryte IS 28, Kalmar FF 28.
Orgryte IS score most often in the 61–75 minute window (9 goals); Kalmar FF have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
Next match, by difficulty
Orgryte IS
- at Degerfors IF29 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 38%
Kalmar FF
- vs AIK Stockholm29 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 29%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.