Santos
vs
Gremio
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Santos 1–0 Gremio
The model makes it 52% Santos, 26% draw, 22% Gremio — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Santos 1.80, Gremio 0.97.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Santos: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Santos's rating is built from 72 Brazilian Serie A matches and Gremio's from 72, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,099 matches.
Key facts
- Santos are 9th on 47 points from 34 games; Gremio are 18th on 37 points from 34 games — Serie A.
- Santos are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to RB Bragantino.
- Gremio have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Flamengo.
- Last 6 meetings: Gremio 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 23 May 2026, ended Gremio 3–2 Santos.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Santos vs Gremio
Has the model earned this number?
Santos at 52%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Santos vs Gremio
Santos
Serie A
- L1-2away to RB Bragantino2 November 2026
- D0-0Palmeiras28 October 2026
- D1-1Bahia25 October 2026
- W2-1away to Fluminense18 October 2026
- L1-2away to Atletico Mineiro11 October 2026
Gremio
Serie A
- L1-3away to Flamengo4 November 2026
- W2-0Atletico Paranaense30 October 2026
- W1-0away to Coritiba26 October 2026
- L2-4Cruzeiro18 October 2026
- D1-1Internacional11 October 2026
What these results say
- Santos failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Santos scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Santos conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gremio scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Santos | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 50 | 49 | +1 | 47 |
| 18 | Gremio | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 37 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Gremio
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 52% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Santos vs Gremio
- 23 May 2026Gremio 3–2 SantosSerie A
- 2 October 2025Santos 1–1 GremioSerie A
- 4 May 2025Gremio 1–0 SantosSerie A
- 20 August 2023Santos 2–1 GremioSerie A
- 16 April 2023Gremio 1–0 SantosSerie A
- 10 October 2021Santos 1–0 GremioSerie A
Leading scorers: Santos and Gremio
Santos
GoalsAssists
- Gabriel Barbosa154
- Neymar83
Gremio
GoalsAssists
- Carlos Vinícius111
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Santos the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Santos against 0.97 for Gremio. Santos's attack/defence rating is 0.96/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.18 for Gremio.
How the model reaches 52% for Santos to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Santos to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, Santos's ratings add 4 points and Gremio's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage45%+9
- Santos's ratings49%+4
- Gremio's ratings52%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Santos at home · Gremio away
League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Santos 34, Gremio 34.
Santos score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Gremio have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Santos
- at Vitoria29 Nov · Serie Awin 39%
- vs Botafogo3 Dec · Serie Awin 53%
Gremio
- at Corinthians29 Nov · Serie Awin 27%
- vs Mirassol3 Dec · Serie Awin 41%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.