Juventus
vs
Venezia
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Juventus 1–0 Venezia
The model makes it 59% Juventus, 26% draw, 15% Venezia — fair odds of 1.69, 3.85 and 6.67.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Juventus 1.75, Venezia 0.63.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Juventus are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Juventus's rating is built from 49 Serie A matches and Venezia's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 870 matches.
Key facts
- Juventus are 7th on 18 points from 11 games; Venezia are 19th on 6 points from 11 games — Serie A.
- Juventus have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Fiorentina.
- Venezia have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Udinese.
- Last 4 meetings: Juventus 2 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 25 May 2025, ended Venezia 2–3 Juventus.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Juventus vs Venezia
Has the model earned this number?
Juventus at 59%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Juventus vs Venezia
Juventus
Serie A
- D2-2away to Fiorentina8 November 2026
- W2-0Napoli1 November 2026
- L0-2away to Genoa28 October 2026
- W2-0away to Lecce25 October 2026
- L0-3Lazio18 October 2026
Venezia
Serie A
- W2-1Udinese6 November 2026
- L0-1away to Como1 November 2026
- L0-2Inter28 October 2026
- L0-1away to Genoa25 October 2026
- W1-0Napoli17 October 2026
What these results say
- Venezia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Venezia had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Juventus | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 18 |
| 19 | Venezia | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 21 | -13 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Juventus
Chance to finish in the top four · 16% today
Venezia
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 63% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Juventus vs Venezia
- 25 May 2025Venezia 2–3 JuventusSerie A
- 14 December 2024Juventus 2–2 VeneziaSerie A
- 1 May 2022Juventus 2–1 VeneziaSerie A
- 11 December 2021Venezia 1–1 JuventusSerie A
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Juventus a 0.6% chance of the title and Venezia 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Juventus the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Juventus against 0.63 for Venezia. Juventus's attack/defence rating is 1.15/0.72 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.08 for Venezia.
How the model reaches 59% for Juventus to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Juventus to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Juventus's ratings add 12 points and Venezia's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 59%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage38%+2
- Both sides at this match's level36%−2
- Juventus's ratings48%+12
- Venezia's ratings59%+11
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Juventus at home · Venezia away
League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
JuventusVenezia
Juventus are 7th after 11 Serie A matches (between 2nd and 8th so far); Venezia are 19th after 11 (between 18th and 20th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Juventus 11, Venezia 11.
Juventus score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Venezia have let in 3 there.
Venezia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Juventus have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Juventus
- vs Omonia Nicosia26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 45%
- at Como29 Nov · Serie Awin 30%
- vs Udinese6 Dec · Serie Awin 58%
- at Hapoel Beer Sheva10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 52%
- vs Monza13 Dec · Serie Awin 60%
Venezia
- vs Bologna29 Nov · Serie Awin 24%
- vs Sassuolo6 Dec · Serie Awin 32%
- at Cagliari13 Dec · Serie Awin 26%
- vs Monza20 Dec · Serie Awin 33%
- at Torino3 Jan · Serie Awin 25%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.