Hammarby FF
vs
IFK Goteborg
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: Hammarby FF 2–0 IFK Goteborg
The model makes it 63% Hammarby FF, 22% draw, 15% IFK Goteborg — fair odds of 1.59, 4.55 and 6.67.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Hammarby FF 2.24, IFK Goteborg 0.85.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Hammarby FF are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Hammarby FF's rating is built from 58 Allsvenskan matches and IFK Goteborg's from 58, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 708 matches.
Key facts
- Hammarby FF are top on 58 points from 28 games; IFK Goteborg are 10th on 39 points from 28 games — Allsvenskan.
- Hammarby FF are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 4-1 win at home to IF Elfsborg.
- IFK Goteborg have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Malmo FF.
- Last 6 meetings: Hammarby FF 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 9 May 2026, ended IFK Goteborg 0–1 Hammarby FF.
More Allsvenskan predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg
Has the model earned this number?
Hammarby FF at 63%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg
Hammarby FF
Allsvenskan
- W4-1IF Elfsborg6 November 2026
- W2-1away to Malmo FF1 November 2026
- W2-0Sirius29 October 2026
- W2-0away to Mjallby AIF25 October 2026
- W1-0away to Halmstad18 October 2026
IFK Goteborg
Allsvenskan
- D0-0Malmo FF8 November 2026
- L0-1away to BK Hacken1 November 2026
- D1-1Djurgardens IF28 October 2026
- D1-1away to Gais25 October 2026
- D2-2away to AIK Stockholm17 October 2026
What these results say
- Hammarby FF won every one of these 5 matches.
- Hammarby FF scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- IFK Goteborg did not win any of these 5 matches.
- IFK Goteborg conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for IFK Goteborg had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hammarby FF | 28 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 60 | 23 | +37 | 58 |
| 10 | IFK Goteborg | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 36 | 46 | -10 | 39 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Hammarby FF
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 79% today
From our Allsvenskan season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg
- 9 May 2026IFK Goteborg 0–1 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
- 5 October 2025IFK Goteborg 1–2 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
- 30 March 2025Hammarby FF 4–0 IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan
- 9 March 2025IFK Goteborg 4–0 Hammarby FFSvenska Cupen
- 1 September 2024IFK Goteborg 0–1 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
- 15 July 2024Hammarby FF 0–1 IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg
Hammarby FF
GoalsAssists
- P. Abraham174
- V. Lind1013
- M. Madjed82
IFK Goteborg
GoalsAssists
- S. Larsson83
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Hammarby FF a 79% chance of the title and IFK Goteborg 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hammarby FF the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Hammarby FF against 0.85 for IFK Goteborg. Hammarby FF's attack/defence rating is 0.9/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.55 for IFK Goteborg.
How the model reaches 63% for Hammarby FF to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Hammarby FF to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Hammarby FF's ratings add 11 points and IFK Goteborg's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 63%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Both sides at this match's level40%−1
- Hammarby FF's ratings51%+11
- IFK Goteborg's ratings63%+12
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Hammarby FF at home · IFK Goteborg away
League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Allsvenskan matches this season: Hammarby FF 28, IFK Goteborg 28.
Hammarby FF score most often in the 46–60 minute window (14 goals); IFK Goteborg have let in 5 there.
IFK Goteborg score most often in the 61–75 minute window (8 goals); Hammarby FF have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
Next match, by difficulty
Hammarby FF
- at Vasteras SK FK29 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 49%
IFK Goteborg
- vs Sirius29 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 33%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.