Netherlands vs Germany UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Netherlands 1-1 Germany.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Netherlands, 28% draw, 41% Germany — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Nations League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Germany at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Netherlands vs Germany
Line-ups
- 1B. VerbruggenG
- 22D. DumfriesD
- 6J. van HeckeD
- 4V. van DijkD
- 15M. van de VenD
- 8R. GravenberchM
- 19Q. TimberM
- 7C. SummervilleM
- 14T. ReijndersM
- 11C. GakpoM
- 9B. BrobbeyF
- 12J. FrimpongD
- 2L. GeertruidaD
- 23M. FlekkenG
- 3J. HatoD
- 20T. KoopmeinersM
- 10N. LangF
- 17M. MeerdinkF
- 13R. RoefsG
- 16G. TilM
- 1M. ter StegenG
- 13P. TreuD
- 4J. TahD
- 15N. SchlotterbeckD
- 18N. BrownD
- 8F. NmechaM
- 6J. KimmichM
- 19K. AdeyemiM
- 11N. AmiriM
- 9K. SchadeM
- 7K. HavertzF
- 22Hennes BehrensD
- 2Y. BisseckD
- 12F. DahmenG
- 23Y. EbnoutalibF
- 5Y. EngelhardtM
- 17C. FührichM
- 20S. GnabryF
- 21A. NübelG
- 3M. RosenfelderD
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netherlands | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 8 |
| 3 | Germany | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Netherlands vs Germany
- 14 October 2024Germany 1–0 NetherlandsUEFA Nations League
- 10 September 2024Netherlands 2–2 GermanyUEFA Nations League
- 26 March 2024Germany 2–1 NetherlandsFriendlies
- 29 March 2022Netherlands 1–1 GermanyFriendlies
- 6 September 2019Germany 2–4 NetherlandsEuro Championship
- 24 March 2019Netherlands 2–3 GermanyEuro Championship
The result against the call
Netherlands and Germany drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Germany at 41% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Felix Nmecha 32' for Germany, Cody Gakpo 90+2' for Netherlands.