Sao Paulo
vs
Fluminense
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Sao Paulo 1–0 Fluminense
The model makes it 35% Sao Paulo, 30% draw, 35% Fluminense — fair odds of 2.86, 3.33 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sao Paulo 1.19, Fluminense 1.20.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
A tight game: Sao Paulo and Fluminense are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. Sao Paulo's rating is built from 72 Brazilian Serie A matches and Fluminense's from 72, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,099 matches.
Key facts
- Sao Paulo are 10th on 44 points from 34 games; Fluminense are 4th on 57 points from 34 games — Serie A.
- Sao Paulo are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Corinthians.
- Fluminense have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Vitoria.
- Last 6 meetings: Fluminense 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 16 May 2026, ended Fluminense 2–1 Sao Paulo.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sao Paulo vs Fluminense
Has the model earned this number?
Sao Paulo at 35%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sao Paulo vs Fluminense
Sao Paulo
Serie A
- D0-0Corinthians5 November 2026
- L2-3away to Bahia29 October 2026
- D1-1away to Mirassol24 October 2026
- W1-0Vasco da Gama18 October 2026
- W2-1Vitoria11 October 2026
Fluminense
Serie A
- W3-0away to Vitoria6 November 2026
- W2-1Internacional28 October 2026
- L1-2away to Chapecoense24 October 2026
- L1-2Santos18 October 2026
- L0-1away to Flamengo11 October 2026
What these results say
- Sao Paulo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fluminense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fluminense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Fluminense had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 44 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 55 | 42 | +13 | 57 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Fluminense
Chance to finish in the top four · 80% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Fluminense vs Sao Paulo
Fluminense and Sao Paulo have met 6 times in the records we hold, Fluminense has won 4 of them to Sao Paulo's 2.
The record
Fluminense won the last one 2–1 on 16 May 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 6 |
| Sao Paulo | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 13 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 19 goals, an average of 3.17 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 16 May 2026
Serie AFluminense 2–1 Sao Paulo - 27 Nov 2025
Serie AFluminense 6–0 Sao Paulo - 27 Jul 2025
Serie ASao Paulo 3–1 Fluminense - 1 Sep 2024
Serie AFluminense 2–0 Sao Paulo - 13 May 2024
Serie ASao Paulo 2–1 Fluminense - 23 Nov 2023
Serie AFluminense 1–0 Sao Paulo
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Fluminense's attack rates 40% above Sao Paulo's, and the two defences are almost level. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Fluminense | 1.02 | 1.03 |
| Sao Paulo | 0.73 | 1.05 |
Leading scorers: Sao Paulo and Fluminense
Sao Paulo
GoalsAssists
- J. Calleri102
- Luciano91
Fluminense
GoalsAssists
- John Kennedy91
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Fluminense (fourth, with Sao Paulo tenth), while our numbers lean to Sao Paulo. Sao Paulo rate 0.73 in attack and 1.05 in defence, Fluminense 1.02 and 1.03 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.
How the call on Sao Paulo v Fluminense has moved
First published on 6 Nov at 37% / 30% / 33% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 35% / 30% / 35%: the biggest move is Sao Paulo's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Sao Paulo win35%▼ −2
- Draw30%=
- Fluminense win35%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sao Paulo the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Sao Paulo against 1.20 for Fluminense. Sao Paulo's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.02/1.03 for Fluminense.
How the model reaches 35% for Sao Paulo to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sao Paulo to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Sao Paulo's ratings take away 6 points and Fluminense's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 35%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage45%+9
- Both sides at this match's level44%−1
- Sao Paulo's ratings38%−6
- Fluminense's ratings35%−3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Sao Paulo at home · Fluminense away
League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Sao Paulo 34, Fluminense 34.
Sao Paulo score most often in the 61–75 minute window (11 goals); Fluminense have let in 9 there.
Fluminense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (19 goals); Sao Paulo have let in 9 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Sao Paulo
- at Botafogo23 Nov · Serie Awin 28%
- vs Remo26 Nov · Serie Awin 50%
- at Atletico Paranaense3 Dec · Serie Awin 25%
Fluminense
- vs Mirassol22 Nov · Serie Awin 53%
- vs Cruzeiro27 Nov · Serie Awin 47%
- at RB Bragantino3 Dec · Serie Awin 32%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.