Regular Season - 27 · 20 November 2026, 18:00 UTC

Molde vs Bodo/Glimt Eliteserien prediction

Aker Stadion, Molde

Our model says: Molde 1–2 Bodo/Glimt

The model makes it 30% Molde, 23% draw, 47% Bodo/Glimt — fair odds of 3.33, 4.35 and 2.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).

Expected goals: Molde 1.61, Bodo/Glimt 2.15.

Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Edge to Bodo/Glimt: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Molde's rating is built from 56 Eliteserien matches and Bodo/Glimt's from 56, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 691 matches.

Key facts

  • Molde are 5th on 44 points from 26 games; Bodo/Glimt are 2nd on 62 points from 26 games — Eliteserien.
  • Molde have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-5 draw away to Sandefjord.
  • Bodo/Glimt have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Tromso.
  • Last 6 meetings: Bodo/Glimt 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 28 June 2026, ended Molde 1–4 Bodo/Glimt.

More Eliteserien predictions

All Eliteserien predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Molde vs Bodo/Glimt

71%
Both teams to score
72%
Over 2.5 goals
28%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Molde win Draw Bodo/Glimt win
  1. 1–29%
  2. 1–18%
  3. 2–27%
  4. 2–16%
  5. 1–36%
  6. 0–25%
  7. 2–35%

Scores read Molde first; the other scorelines share the remaining 53%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Bodo/Glimt at 47%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Molde vs Bodo/Glimt

Molde

Eliteserien

  • D5-5away to Sandefjord8 November 2026
  • L2-3away to Brann1 November 2026
  • W5-1Fredrikstad25 October 2026
  • W6-1Start18 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Lillestrom11 October 2026

Bodo/Glimt

Eliteserien

  • W2-0away to Tromso8 November 2026
  • W3-2Viking30 October 2026
  • L0-1Valerenga24 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Ham-Kam17 October 2026
  • W3-1Kristiansund BK10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Molde scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Molde conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Molde had three goals or more.
  • Bodo/Glimt won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Bodo/Glimt scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Molde2613586444+2044
2Bodo/Glimt2620246323+4062

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Bodo/Glimt

Chance to finish top of the regular season · 49% today

Win 64%
Draw 41%
Defeat 30%

From our Eliteserien season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Molde vs Bodo/Glimt

  • 28 June 2026Molde 1–4 Bodo/GlimtFriendlies Clubs
  • 4 May 2026Bodo/Glimt 0–1 MoldeEliteserien
  • 5 March 2026Molde 1–2 Bodo/GlimtNM Cupen
  • 26 October 2025Bodo/Glimt 4–1 MoldeEliteserien
  • 21 April 2025Molde 2–2 Bodo/GlimtEliteserien
  • 22 March 2025Molde 1–2 Bodo/GlimtFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Molde and Bodo/Glimt

Molde

GoalsAssists

  • K. Lonebu152
  • E. Breivik1010
  • E. Hestad82

Bodo/Glimt

GoalsAssists

  • A. Helmersen132

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Molde a 0% chance of the title and Bodo/Glimt 49%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Molde v Bodo/Glimt has moved

First published on 6 Nov at 32% / 24% / 44% (home / draw / away). After 3 updates it reads 30% / 23% / 47%: the biggest move is Bodo/Glimt's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Molde win30%▼ −2
  2. Draw23%▼ −1
  3. Bodo/Glimt win47%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Molde Bodo/Glimt
1.08 Attack strength (vs league average) 1.02
1.46 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.82
1.61 Model expected goals (this match) 2.15

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Bodo/Glimt the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Molde against 2.15 for Bodo/Glimt. Molde's attack/defence rating is 1.08/1.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.02/0.82 for Bodo/Glimt.

Molde carry a model rating of 6.72 against 6.96 for Bodo/Glimt.

How the model reaches 47% for Bodo/Glimt to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Bodo/Glimt to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Molde's ratings add 9 points and Bodo/Glimt's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 47%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage31%−6
  3. Molde's ratings40%+9
  4. Bodo/Glimt's ratings47%+7

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

MoldeBodo/Glimt
26Matches26
13W 5D 8LRecord20W 2D 4L
64 2.5 per gameGoals scored63 2.4 per game
44 1.7 per gameGoals conceded23 0.9 per game
4 of 26Clean sheets12 of 26
2 of 26Failed to score3 of 26
3 of 4Penalties scored5 of 6
52 2.0 per gameYellow cards15 0.6 per game
2Red cards1
4-2-3-1 18×Usual shape4-4-2 13×

Molde at home · Bodo/Glimt away

13Played13
9W 1D 3LRecord9W 2D 2L
35–15Goals for – against26–13
3 of 13Clean sheets6 of 13

League matches only, Eliteserien, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Eliteserien matches this season: Molde 26, Bodo/Glimt 26.

Molde scored 8101314512
Bodo/Glimt conceded 327266

Molde score most often in the 46–60 minute window (14 goals); Bodo/Glimt have let in 2 there.

Bodo/Glimt scored 3141181211
Molde conceded 10761039

Bodo/Glimt score most often in the 16–30 minute window (14 goals); Molde have let in 7 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Molde

  • at Rosenborg28 Nov · Eliteserienwin 24%
  • vs Viking4 Dec · Eliteserienwin 31%
  • at Fredrikstad13 Dec · Eliteserienwin 45%

Bodo/Glimt

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.