Regular Season - 35 · 19 November 2026, 22:30 UTC

Vasco da Gama vs Internacional Serie A prediction

São Januário, Rio de Janeiro

Our model says: Vasco da Gama 1–0 Internacional

The model makes it 47% Vasco da Gama, 27% draw, 26% Internacional — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Vasco da Gama 1.65, Internacional 1.11.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,662 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Key facts

  • Vasco da Gama are 13th on 41 points from 33 games; Internacional are 16th on 38 points from 34 games — Serie A.
  • Vasco da Gama have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Atletico Paranaense.
  • Internacional have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Coritiba.
  • Last 6 meetings: Internacional 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 16 May 2026, ended Internacional 4–1 Vasco da Gama.

More Brazilian Serie A predictions

All Brazilian Serie A predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Vasco da Gama vs Internacional

55%
Both teams to score
52%
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Vasco da Gama win Draw Internacional win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 1–010%
  3. 2–110%
  4. 2–09%
  5. 0–07%
  6. 0–16%
  7. 1–26%

Scores read Vasco da Gama first; the other scorelines share the remaining 40%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Vasco da Gama at 47%: of 2,664 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.9% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Vasco da Gama vs Internacional

Vasco da Gama

Serie A

  • W3-1away to Atletico Paranaense4 November 2026
  • L1-4Flamengo29 October 2026
  • W3-2Corinthians24 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Sao Paulo18 October 2026
  • D0-0Remo10 October 2026

Internacional

Serie A

  • W1-0Coritiba4 November 2026
  • L1-2away to Fluminense28 October 2026
  • W3-0Botafogo24 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Mirassol16 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Gremio11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Vasco da Gama conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Internacional scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Vasco da Gama33118144350-741
16Internacional34911143842-438

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Vasco da Gama vs Internacional

  • 16 May 2026Internacional 4–1 Vasco da GamaSerie A
  • 28 November 2025Vasco da Gama 5–1 InternacionalSerie A
  • 27 July 2025Internacional 1–1 Vasco da GamaSerie A
  • 21 November 2024Vasco da Gama 0–1 InternacionalSerie A
  • 7 July 2024Internacional 1–2 Vasco da GamaSerie A
  • 27 October 2023Vasco da Gama 1–2 InternacionalSerie A

The full Vasco da Gama vs Internacional record →

Leading scorers: Vasco da Gama and Internacional

Vasco da Gama

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 43 league goals as a side.

Internacional

GoalsAssists

  • J. Carbonero74

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Vasco da Gama Internacional
0.93 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.78
1.27 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.12
1.65 Model expected goals (this match) 1.11

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Vasco da Gama the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Vasco da Gama against 1.11 for Internacional. Vasco da Gama's attack/defence rating is 0.93/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.12 for Internacional.

How the model reaches 47% for Vasco da Gama to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Vasco da Gama to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, Vasco da Gama's ratings add 2 points and Internacional's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 47%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage45%+9
  3. Vasco da Gama's ratings47%+2
  4. Internacional's ratings47%±0

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Vasco da GamaInternacional
33Matches34
11W 8D 14LRecord9W 11D 14L
43 1.3 per gameGoals scored38 1.1 per game
50 1.5 per gameGoals conceded42 1.2 per game
4 of 33Clean sheets8 of 34
10 of 33Failed to score10 of 34
2 of 2Penalties scored3 of 3
61 1.8 per gameYellow cards88 2.6 per game
2Red cards5
4-2-3-1 18×Usual shape3-4-2-1 11×

Vasco da Gama at home · Internacional away

17Played17
8W 3D 6LRecord3W 6D 8L
25–24Goals for – against16–25
3 of 17Clean sheets2 of 17

League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Serie A matches this season: Vasco da Gama 33, Internacional 34.

Vasco da Gama scored 2478815
Internacional conceded 6877411

Vasco da Gama score most often in the 76–90 minute window (15 goals); Internacional have let in 11 there.

Internacional scored 376669
Vasco da Gama conceded 567111010

Internacional score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Vasco da Gama have let in 10 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Vasco da Gama

  • at RB Bragantino22 Nov · Serie Awin 26%
  • at Atletico Mineiro29 Nov · Serie Awin 24%
  • vs Vitoria2 Dec · Serie Awin 52%

Internacional

  • vs Vitoria23 Nov · Serie Awin 48%
  • vs RB Bragantino29 Nov · Serie Awin 40%
  • at Cruzeiro2 Dec · Serie Awin 20%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.