Vitoria
vs
RB Bragantino
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Vitoria 1–0 RB Bragantino
The model makes it 36% Vitoria, 30% draw, 34% RB Bragantino — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Vitoria 1.21, RB Bragantino 1.19.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,193 settled matches.
A tight game: Vitoria and RB Bragantino are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 5 November 2026. Vitoria's rating is built from 71 Brazilian Serie A matches and RB Bragantino's from 72, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,096 matches.
Key facts
- Vitoria are 15th on 38 points from 33 games; RB Bragantino are 8th on 47 points from 34 games — Serie A.
- Vitoria are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Coritiba.
- RB Bragantino have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Santos.
- Last 6 meetings: RB Bragantino 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 17 May 2026, ended RB Bragantino 2–0 Vitoria.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Vitoria vs RB Bragantino
Has the model earned this number?
Vitoria at 36%: of 4,355 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.5% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Vitoria vs RB Bragantino
Vitoria
Serie A
- L0-2away to Coritiba31 October 2026
- D1-1Atletico Paranaense24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Corinthians19 October 2026
- L1-2away to Sao Paulo11 October 2026
- W4-0Chapecoense7 October 2026
RB Bragantino
Serie A
- W2-1Santos2 November 2026
- W3-0Chapecoense28 October 2026
- L0-2away to Palmeiras24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Remo18 October 2026
- W4-2Cruzeiro13 October 2026
What these results say
- Vitoria failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vitoria scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vitoria conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- RB Bragantino scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- RB Bragantino conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Vitoria | 33 | 10 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 38 |
| 8 | RB Bragantino | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 44 | 39 | +5 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Vitoria vs RB Bragantino
- 17 May 2026RB Bragantino 2–0 VitoriaSerie A
- 3 December 2025RB Bragantino 4–0 VitoriaSerie A
- 20 July 2025Vitoria 1–0 RB BragantinoSerie A
- 19 October 2024Vitoria 1–0 RB BragantinoSerie A
- 23 June 2024RB Bragantino 2–1 VitoriaSerie A
- 29 September 2019Bragantino 2–0 VitoriaSerie B
Leading scorers: Vitoria and RB Bragantino
Vitoria
GoalsAssists
- Rene101
RB Bragantino
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 44 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour RB Bragantino (8th, with Vitoria 15th), while our numbers lean to Vitoria. Vitoria rate 0.71 in attack and 1.22 in defence, RB Bragantino 0.87 and 1.08 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vitoria the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Vitoria against 1.19 for RB Bragantino. Vitoria's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.08 for RB Bragantino.
How the model reaches 36% for Vitoria to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Vitoria to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Vitoria's ratings take away 5 points and RB Bragantino's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage45%+9
- Both sides at this match's level44%−1
- Vitoria's ratings39%−5
- RB Bragantino's ratings36%−3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Vitoria at home · RB Bragantino away
League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Vitoria 33, RB Bragantino 34.
Vitoria score most often in the 16–30 minute window (10 goals); RB Bragantino have let in 8 there.
RB Bragantino score most often in the 31–45 minute window (11 goals); Vitoria have let in 12 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Vitoria
- at Internacional23 Nov · Serie Awin 23%
- vs Santos29 Nov · Serie Awin 35%
- at Vasco da Gama2 Dec · Serie Awin 22%
RB Bragantino
- vs Vasco da Gama22 Nov · Serie Awin 48%
- at Internacional29 Nov · Serie Awin 31%
- vs Fluminense2 Dec · Serie Awin 42%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.