Regular Season - 35 · 19 November 2026, 00:30 UTC

Corinthians vs Botafogo Serie A prediction

Neo Quimica Arena, Sao Paulo

Our model says: Corinthians 1–0 Botafogo

The model makes it 44% Corinthians, 29% draw, 27% Botafogo — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Corinthians 1.47, Botafogo 1.03.

Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,662 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 5 November 2026. Corinthians's rating is built from 72 Brazilian Serie A matches and Botafogo's from 72, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,096 matches.

Key facts

  • Corinthians are 17th on 37 points from 34 games; Botafogo are 11th on 42 points from 34 games — Serie A.
  • Corinthians have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Sao Paulo.
  • Botafogo have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Atletico Mineiro.
  • Last 6 meetings: Botafogo 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 May 2026, ended Botafogo 3–1 Corinthians.

More Brazilian Serie A predictions

All Brazilian Serie A predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Corinthians vs Botafogo

50%
Both teams to score
45%
Over 2.5 goals
55%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Corinthians win Draw Botafogo win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 1–011%
  3. 2–19%
  4. 2–09%
  5. 0–09%
  6. 0–18%
  7. 1–26%

Scores read Corinthians first; the other scorelines share the remaining 35%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Corinthians at 44%: of 2,664 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.9% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Corinthians vs Botafogo

Corinthians

Serie A

  • D0-0away to Sao Paulo5 November 2026
  • W2-0Mirassol30 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Vasco da Gama24 October 2026
  • D1-1Vitoria19 October 2026
  • L1-4away to Palmeiras11 October 2026

Botafogo

Serie A

  • W1-0Atletico Mineiro5 November 2026
  • L1-2away to Remo29 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Internacional24 October 2026
  • W1-0Chapecoense17 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Coritiba12 October 2026

What these results say

  • Corinthians failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Corinthians scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Botafogo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Corinthians34910153642-637
11Botafogo34119144653-742

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Corinthians

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 46% today

Win 27%
Draw 57%
Defeat 68%

Botafogo

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 3% today

Win 0%
Draw 1%
Defeat 6%

From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Corinthians vs Botafogo

  • 17 May 2026Botafogo 3–1 CorinthiansSerie A
  • 30 November 2025Corinthians 2–2 BotafogoSerie A
  • 26 July 2025Botafogo 1–1 CorinthiansSerie A
  • 15 September 2024Botafogo 2–1 CorinthiansSerie A
  • 2 June 2024Corinthians 0–1 BotafogoSerie A
  • 22 September 2023Corinthians 1–0 BotafogoSerie A

The full Corinthians vs Botafogo record →

Leading scorers: Corinthians and Botafogo

Corinthians

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 36 league goals as a side.

Botafogo

GoalsAssists

  • Danilo Santos102

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Botafogo (11th, with Corinthians 17th), while our numbers lean to Corinthians. Corinthians rate 0.76 in attack and 1.15 in defence, Botafogo 0.80 and 1.22 (lower is better in defence), so Corinthians have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 5-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Corinthians Botafogo
0.76 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.8
1.15 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.22
1.47 Model expected goals (this match) 1.03

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Corinthians the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Corinthians against 1.03 for Botafogo. Corinthians's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.22 for Botafogo.

Corinthians carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.64 for Botafogo. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 44% for Corinthians to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Corinthians to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Corinthians's ratings change nothing and Botafogo's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 44%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage45%+9
  3. Both sides at this match's level44%−1
  4. Corinthians's ratings44%±0
  5. Botafogo's ratings44%±0

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

CorinthiansBotafogo
34Matches34
9W 10D 15LRecord11W 9D 14L
36 1.1 per gameGoals scored46 1.4 per game
42 1.2 per gameGoals conceded53 1.6 per game
12 of 34Clean sheets6 of 34
8 of 34Failed to score8 of 34
1 of 1Penalties scored2 of 2
88 2.6 per gameYellow cards86 2.5 per game
6Red cards4
4-2-3-1 23×Usual shape4-2-3-1 18×

Corinthians at home · Botafogo away

17Played17
6W 4D 7LRecord4W 3D 10L
18–17Goals for – against19–31
7 of 17Clean sheets1 of 17

League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Serie A matches this season: Corinthians 34, Botafogo 34.

Corinthians scored 45410411
Botafogo conceded 106812410

Corinthians score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Botafogo have let in 10 there.

Botafogo scored 8688514
Corinthians conceded 55153210

Botafogo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Corinthians have let in 10 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Corinthians

  • at Atletico Mineiro25 Nov · Serie Awin 22%
  • vs Gremio29 Nov · Serie Awin 44%
  • at Remo2 Dec · Serie Awin 29%

Botafogo

  • vs Sao Paulo23 Nov · Serie Awin 42%
  • vs Bahia29 Nov · Serie Awin 39%
  • at Santos2 Dec · Serie Awin 22%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.