FC Augsburg
vs
FSV Mainz 05
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: FC Augsburg 2–1 FSV Mainz 05
The model makes it 45% FC Augsburg, 23% draw, 32% FSV Mainz 05 — fair odds of 2.22, 4.35 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: FC Augsburg 2.21, FSV Mainz 05 1.79.
Both teams to score: 74%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,919 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. FC Augsburg's rating is built from 43 Bundesliga matches and FSV Mainz 05's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 697 matches.
Key facts
- FC Augsburg are 14th on 9 points from 9 games; FSV Mainz 05 are 12th on 10 points from 9 games — Bundesliga.
- FC Augsburg have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-5 defeat away to RB Leipzig.
- FSV Mainz 05 are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Bayern München.
- Last 6 meetings: FSV Mainz 05 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 7 February 2026, ended FSV Mainz 05 2–0 FC Augsburg.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05
Has the model earned this number?
FC Augsburg at 45%: of 2,924 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.0% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05
FC Augsburg
Bundesliga
- L2-5away to RB Leipzig7 November 2026
- L1-2SC Freiburg31 October 2026
- D1-1Union Berlin24 October 2026
- L3-4away to SV Elversberg17 October 2026
- D2-2Bayern München10 October 2026
FSV Mainz 05
Bundesliga
- L1-2Bayern München7 November 2026
- L1-4away to SV Elversberg30 October 2026
- L2-3Werder Bremen24 October 2026
- W1-0away to FC Schalke 0417 October 2026
- L3-4Bayer Leverkusen10 October 2026
What these results say
- FC Augsburg did not win any of these 5 matches.
- FC Augsburg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Augsburg conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- FSV Mainz 05 scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FSV Mainz 05 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FSV Mainz 05 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | FC Augsburg | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | FSV Mainz 05 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FSV Mainz 05
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 8% today
From our Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05
FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 have met 6 times in the records we hold, FSV Mainz 05 has won 4 of them to FC Augsburg's 1, with 1 drawn.
The record
FSV Mainz 05 won the last one 2–0 on 7 Feb 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 |
| FSV Mainz 05 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 16 goals, an average of 2.67 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 7 Feb 2026
BundesligaFSV Mainz 05 2–0 FC Augsburg - 20 Sep 2025
BundesligaFC Augsburg 1–4 FSV Mainz 05 - 8 Feb 2025
BundesligaFSV Mainz 05 0–0 FC Augsburg - 20 Sep 2024
BundesligaFC Augsburg 2–3 FSV Mainz 05 - 17 Feb 2024
BundesligaFSV Mainz 05 1–0 FC Augsburg - 23 Sep 2023
BundesligaFC Augsburg 2–1 FSV Mainz 05
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, FC Augsburg's attack rates 6% above FSV Mainz 05's, and FSV Mainz 05 concede 3% fewer than FC Augsburg. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg | 1.07 | 1.15 |
| FSV Mainz 05 | 1.01 | 1.12 |
Leading scorers: FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05
FC Augsburg
GoalsAssists
- M. Gregoritsch50
FSV Mainz 05
GoalsAssists
- P. Tietz60
- A. Caci33
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FSV Mainz 05 (12th, with FC Augsburg 14th), while our numbers lean to FC Augsburg. FC Augsburg rate 1.07 in attack and 1.15 in defence, FSV Mainz 05 1.01 and 1.12 (lower is better in defence), so FC Augsburg have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 1-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Augsburg the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.21 expected goals for FC Augsburg against 1.79 for FSV Mainz 05. FC Augsburg's attack/defence rating is 1.07/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.01/1.12 for FSV Mainz 05.
How the model reaches 45% for FC Augsburg to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for FC Augsburg to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, FC Augsburg's ratings add 1 point and FSV Mainz 05's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage43%+5
- Both sides at this match's level44%+1
- FC Augsburg's ratings45%+1
- FSV Mainz 05's ratings45%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
FC Augsburg at home · FSV Mainz 05 away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
FC AugsburgFSV Mainz 05
FC Augsburg are 14th after 9 Bundesliga matches (between 1st and 11th so far); FSV Mainz 05 are 12th after 9 (between 4th and 10th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: FC Augsburg 9, FSV Mainz 05 9.
FC Augsburg score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); FSV Mainz 05 have let in 1 there.
FSV Mainz 05 score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); FC Augsburg have let in 6 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
FC Augsburg
- at 1899 Hoffenheim29 Nov · Bundesligawin 32%
- vs 1. FC Köln5 Dec · Bundesligawin 51%
- at Borussia Dortmund12 Dec · Bundesligawin 14%
- vs SC Paderborn 0719 Dec · Bundesligawin 47%
- at VfB Stuttgart9 Jan · Bundesligawin 25%
FSV Mainz 05
- vs Union Berlin28 Nov · Bundesligawin 52%
- at RB Leipzig5 Dec · Bundesligawin 16%
- vs SC Freiburg13 Dec · Bundesligawin 30%
- vs 1. FC Köln19 Dec · Bundesligawin 50%
- at Borussia Dortmund8 Jan · Bundesligawin 14%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.