Bayer Leverkusen
vs
SC Paderborn 07
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 SC Paderborn 07
The model makes it 59% Bayer Leverkusen, 23% draw, 18% SC Paderborn 07 — fair odds of 1.69, 4.35 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Bayer Leverkusen 2.08, SC Paderborn 07 0.91.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Bayer Leverkusen are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Bayer Leverkusen's rating is built from 43 Bundesliga matches and SC Paderborn 07's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 697 matches.
Key facts
- Bayer Leverkusen are 5th on 16 points from 9 games; SC Paderborn 07 are 13th on 10 points from 9 games — Bundesliga.
- Bayer Leverkusen have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to 1. FC Köln.
- SC Paderborn 07 are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Eintracht Frankfurt.
- Last 6 meetings: Bayer Leverkusen 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 29 October 2025, ended SC Paderborn 07 2–4 Bayer Leverkusen.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07
Has the model earned this number?
Bayer Leverkusen at 59%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07
Bayer Leverkusen
Bundesliga
- W2-1away to 1. FC Köln8 November 2026
- L2-4VfB Stuttgart31 October 2026
- L0-3away to 1899 Hoffenheim25 October 2026
- W2-1SC Freiburg18 October 2026
- W4-3away to FSV Mainz 0510 October 2026
SC Paderborn 07
Bundesliga
- D2-2Eintracht Frankfurt7 November 2026
- D0-0away to Borussia Mönchengladbach31 October 2026
- W1-0Hamburger SV24 October 2026
- D2-2away to Werder Bremen17 October 2026
- L0-2VfB Stuttgart10 October 2026
What these results say
- Bayer Leverkusen conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Bayer Leverkusen had three goals or more.
- Bayer Leverkusen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- SC Paderborn 07 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 16 |
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Bayer Leverkusen
Chance to finish in the top four · 43% today
SC Paderborn 07
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 15% today
From our Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07
- 29 October 2025SC Paderborn 07 2–4 Bayer LeverkusenDFB Pokal
- 6 December 2023Bayer Leverkusen 3–1 SC Paderborn 07DFB Pokal
- 21 July 2023Bayer Leverkusen 1–2 SC Paderborn 07Friendlies Clubs
- 19 January 2020SC Paderborn 07 1–4 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 29 October 2019Bayer Leverkusen 1–0 SC Paderborn 07DFB Pokal
- 17 August 2019Bayer Leverkusen 3–2 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
Leading scorers: Bayer Leverkusen and SC Paderborn 07
Bayer Leverkusen
GoalsAssists
- P. Schick82
- I. Maza33
SC Paderborn 07
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bayer Leverkusen a 1.5% chance of the title and SC Paderborn 07 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Bayer Leverkusen v SC Paderborn 07 has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 57% / 25% / 18% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 59% / 23% / 18%: the biggest move is Bayer Leverkusen's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Bayer Leverkusen win59%▲ +2
- Draw23%▼ −2
- SC Paderborn 07 win18%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bayer Leverkusen the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen against 0.91 for SC Paderborn 07. Bayer Leverkusen's attack/defence rating is 1.33/0.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/0.85 for SC Paderborn 07.
How the model reaches 59% for Bayer Leverkusen to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for Bayer Leverkusen to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Bayer Leverkusen's ratings add 12 points and SC Paderborn 07's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 59%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage43%+5
- Both sides at this match's level41%−2
- Bayer Leverkusen's ratings53%+12
- SC Paderborn 07's ratings59%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Bayer Leverkusen at home · SC Paderborn 07 away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Bayer LeverkusenSC Paderborn 07
Bayer Leverkusen are 5th after 9 Bundesliga matches (between 3rd and 17th so far); SC Paderborn 07 are 13th after 9 (between 5th and 15th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Bayer Leverkusen 9, SC Paderborn 07 9.
Bayer Leverkusen score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); SC Paderborn 07 have let in 3 there.
SC Paderborn 07 score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Bayer Leverkusen have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Bayer Leverkusen
- at Dinamo Zagreb26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 44%
- at Borussia Dortmund29 Nov · Bundesligawin 23%
- vs Borussia Mönchengladbach5 Dec · Bundesligawin 67%
- vs Beşiktaş10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 51%
- at Werder Bremen13 Dec · Bundesligawin 45%
SC Paderborn 07
- vs FC Schalke 0428 Nov · Bundesligawin 37%
- at Bayern München4 Dec · Bundesligawin 9%
- vs SV Elversberg12 Dec · Bundesligawin 33%
- at FC Augsburg19 Dec · Bundesligawin 26%
- vs RB Leipzig9 Jan · Bundesligawin 21%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.