Wolfsberger AC
vs
Ried
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Wolfsberger AC 0–1 Ried
The model makes it 29% Wolfsberger AC, 28% draw, 43% Ried — fair odds of 3.45, 3.57 and 2.33.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Wolfsberger AC 1.09, Ried 1.48.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Edge to Ried: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Wolfsberger AC's rating is built from 45 Austrian Bundesliga matches and Ried's from 47, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 462 matches.
Key facts
- Wolfsberger AC are bottom on 6 points from 12 games; Ried are 6th on 16 points from 12 games — Bundesliga.
- Wolfsberger AC have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-6 defeat away to Rapid Vienna.
- Ried are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat at home to Lask Linz.
- Last 6 meetings: Ried 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 20 September 2026, ended Ried 4–1 Wolfsberger AC.
More Austrian Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Wolfsberger AC vs Ried
Has the model earned this number?
Ried at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Wolfsberger AC vs Ried
Wolfsberger AC
Bundesliga
- L0-6away to Rapid Vienna6 November 2026
- D1-1Sturm Graz1 November 2026
- L0-1away to TSV Hartberg24 October 2026
- L0-2WSG Wattens18 October 2026
- L0-3away to SCR Altach11 October 2026
Ried
Bundesliga
- L2-4Lask Linz7 November 2026
- D1-1away to SCR Altach31 October 2026
- D2-2away to Sturm Graz25 October 2026
- W3-2Austria Vienna17 October 2026
- W2-1away to WSG Wattens10 October 2026
What these results say
- Wolfsberger AC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Wolfsberger AC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Wolfsberger AC failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ried scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ried conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Ried.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Austria Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wolfsberger AC | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 26 | -18 | 6 |
| 6 | Ried | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 22 | -1 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Wolfsberger AC
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 86% today
Ried
Chance to finish in the top six · 73% today
From our Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Wolfsberger AC vs Ried
- 20 September 2026Ried 4–1 Wolfsberger ACBundesliga
- 19 May 2026Ried 2–1 Wolfsberger ACBundesliga
- 9 May 2026Ried 0–1 Wolfsberger ACBundesliga
- 11 April 2026Wolfsberger AC 0–0 RiedBundesliga
- 29 November 2025Ried 1–0 Wolfsberger ACBundesliga
- 18 October 2025Wolfsberger AC 1–2 RiedBundesliga
Leading scorers: Wolfsberger AC and Ried
Wolfsberger AC
GoalsAssists
- G. Vrioni40
Ried
GoalsAssists
- S. Schwab42
- P. Pomer41
- I. Kiese Thelin40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ried the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC against 1.48 for Ried. Wolfsberger AC's attack/defence rating is 0.41/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.61 for Ried.
How the model reaches 43% for Ried to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Ried to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Wolfsberger AC's ratings add 6 points and Ried's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Both sides at this match's level30%−1
- Wolfsberger AC's ratings36%+6
- Ried's ratings43%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Wolfsberger AC at home · Ried away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Wolfsberger ACRied
Wolfsberger AC are 12th after 12 Bundesliga matches (between 2nd and 12th so far); Ried are 6th after 12 (between 4th and 10th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Wolfsberger AC 12, Ried 12.
Wolfsberger AC score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Ried have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Wolfsberger AC
- at Austria Vienna28 Nov · Bundesligawin 21%
- vs Austria Lustenau6 Dec · Bundesligawin 40%
- at Red Bull Salzburg13 Dec · Bundesligawin 7%
- at Sturm Graz23 Jan · Bundesligawin 11%
- vs TSV Hartberg30 Jan · Bundesligawin 24%
Ried
- vs TSV Hartberg29 Nov · Bundesligawin 37%
- vs WSG Wattens6 Dec · Bundesligawin 47%
- at Rapid Vienna12 Dec · Bundesligawin 13%
- vs SCR Altach23 Jan · Bundesligawin 49%
- at Red Bull Salzburg30 Jan · Bundesligawin 12%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.