SV Elversberg
vs
SC Freiburg
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: SV Elversberg 1–2 SC Freiburg
The model makes it 33% SV Elversberg, 24% draw, 43% SC Freiburg — fair odds of 3.03, 4.17 and 2.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: SV Elversberg 1.70, SC Freiburg 2.02.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Edge to SC Freiburg: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. SV Elversberg's rating is built from 9 Bundesliga matches and SC Freiburg's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 697 matches.
Key facts
- SV Elversberg are 7th on 13 points from 9 games; SC Freiburg are 3rd on 19 points from 9 games — Bundesliga.
- SV Elversberg have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Borussia Dortmund.
- SC Freiburg have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Union Berlin.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: SV Elversberg vs SC Freiburg
Has the model earned this number?
SC Freiburg at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into SV Elversberg vs SC Freiburg
SV Elversberg
Bundesliga
- L1-2away to Borussia Dortmund7 November 2026
- W4-1FSV Mainz 0530 October 2026
- L0-4away to RB Leipzig24 October 2026
- W4-3FC Augsburg17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Union Berlin10 October 2026
SC Freiburg
Bundesliga
- W2-0Union Berlin8 November 2026
- W2-1away to FC Augsburg31 October 2026
- L1-3Bayern München25 October 2026
- L1-2away to Bayer Leverkusen18 October 2026
- W2-1FC Schalke 0411 October 2026
What these results say
- SV Elversberg conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for SV Elversberg had three goals or more.
- SC Freiburg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- SC Freiburg conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for SC Freiburg had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | SV Elversberg | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 13 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
SV Elversberg
Chance to finish in the top four · 5% today
SC Freiburg
Chance to finish in the top four · 56% today
From our Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: SV Elversberg vs SC Freiburg
- 2 July 2022SC Freiburg 0–0 SV ElversbergFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: SV Elversberg and SC Freiburg
SV Elversberg
GoalsAssists
- M. Krattenmacher41
SC Freiburg
GoalsAssists
- Y. Suzuki50
- I. Matanović41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives SV Elversberg a 0% chance of the title and SC Freiburg 2.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SC Freiburg the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.70 expected goals for SV Elversberg against 2.02 for SC Freiburg. SV Elversberg's attack/defence rating is 1.11/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.19/0.83 for SC Freiburg.
How the model reaches 43% for SC Freiburg to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for SC Freiburg to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, SV Elversberg's ratings add 5 points and SC Freiburg's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage32%−5
- Both sides at this match's level33%+1
- SV Elversberg's ratings38%+5
- SC Freiburg's ratings43%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
SV Elversberg at home · SC Freiburg away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
SV ElversbergSC Freiburg
SV Elversberg are 7th after 9 Bundesliga matches (between 2nd and 8th so far); SC Freiburg are 3rd after 9 (between 1st and 3rd). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: SV Elversberg 9, SC Freiburg 9.
SV Elversberg score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); SC Freiburg have let in 1 there.
SC Freiburg score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); SV Elversberg have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
SV Elversberg
- at 1. FC Köln28 Nov · Bundesligawin 43%
- vs VfB Stuttgart6 Dec · Bundesligawin 38%
- at SC Paderborn 0712 Dec · Bundesligawin 39%
- vs Hamburger SV19 Dec · Bundesligawin 53%
- at 1899 Hoffenheim9 Jan · Bundesligawin 35%
SC Freiburg
- vs Twente26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 44%
- vs RB Leipzig29 Nov · Bundesligawin 38%
- vs 1899 Hoffenheim5 Dec · Bundesligawin 56%
- vs Panathinaikos10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 43%
- at FSV Mainz 0513 Dec · Bundesligawin 46%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.