Werder Bremen
vs
Hamburger SV
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Werder Bremen 2–1 Hamburger SV
The model makes it 49% Werder Bremen, 26% draw, 25% Hamburger SV — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Werder Bremen 1.85, Hamburger SV 1.18.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Edge to Werder Bremen: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Werder Bremen's rating is built from 43 Bundesliga matches and Hamburger SV's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 697 matches.
Key facts
- Werder Bremen are 6th on 15 points from 9 games; Hamburger SV are 11th on 12 points from 9 games — Bundesliga.
- Werder Bremen have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to VfB Stuttgart.
- Hamburger SV have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Borussia Mönchengladbach.
- Last 6 meetings: Werder Bremen 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 18 April 2026, ended Werder Bremen 3–1 Hamburger SV.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV
Has the model earned this number?
Werder Bremen at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV
Werder Bremen
Bundesliga
- L0-1away to VfB Stuttgart7 November 2026
- W2-01899 Hoffenheim31 October 2026
- W3-2away to FSV Mainz 0524 October 2026
- D2-2SC Paderborn 0717 October 2026
- D2-2away to Borussia Dortmund9 October 2026
Hamburger SV
Bundesliga
- W3-1Borussia Mönchengladbach6 November 2026
- L1-3away to Eintracht Frankfurt1 November 2026
- L0-1away to SC Paderborn 0724 October 2026
- W1-0VfB Stuttgart17 October 2026
- W3-2away to 1899 Hoffenheim10 October 2026
What these results say
- Werder Bremen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Werder Bremen conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hamburger SV scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hamburger SV conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 15 |
| 11 | Hamburger SV | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Werder Bremen
Chance to finish in the top four · 6% today
Hamburger SV
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 11% today
From our Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV
- 18 April 2026Werder Bremen 3–1 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 7 December 2025Hamburger SV 3–2 Werder BremenBundesliga
- 27 February 2022Hamburger SV 2–3 Werder Bremen2. Bundesliga
- 18 September 2021Werder Bremen 0–2 Hamburger SV2. Bundesliga
- 24 February 2018Werder Bremen 1–0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 30 September 2017Hamburger SV 0–0 Werder BremenBundesliga
Leading scorers: Werder Bremen and Hamburger SV
Werder Bremen
GoalsAssists
- N. Füllkrug90
Hamburger SV
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Werder Bremen the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Werder Bremen against 1.18 for Hamburger SV. Werder Bremen's attack/defence rating is 0.92/0.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.09 for Hamburger SV.
How the model reaches 49% for Werder Bremen to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for Werder Bremen to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Werder Bremen's ratings add 4 points and Hamburger SV's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage43%+5
- Both sides at this match's level41%−2
- Werder Bremen's ratings45%+4
- Hamburger SV's ratings49%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Werder Bremen at home · Hamburger SV away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Werder BremenHamburger SV
Werder Bremen are 6th after 9 Bundesliga matches (between 4th and 16th so far); Hamburger SV are 11th after 9 (between 6th and 18th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Werder Bremen 9, Hamburger SV 9.
Werder Bremen score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Hamburger SV have let in 4 there.
Hamburger SV score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Werder Bremen have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Werder Bremen
- vs Borussia Mönchengladbach27 Nov · Bundesligawin 52%
- at Eintracht Frankfurt5 Dec · Bundesligawin 31%
- vs Bayer Leverkusen13 Dec · Bundesligawin 31%
- at Bayern München18 Dec · Bundesligawin 10%
- vs Union Berlin10 Jan · Bundesligawin 51%
Hamburger SV
- vs Bayern München28 Nov · Bundesligawin 12%
- at Union Berlin5 Dec · Bundesligawin 34%
- vs FC Schalke 0411 Dec · Bundesligawin 39%
- at SV Elversberg19 Dec · Bundesligawin 24%
- vs Bayer Leverkusen10 Jan · Bundesligawin 24%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.