Wolves
vs
Derby
Championship prediction
Our model says: Wolves 2–0 Derby
The model makes it 58% Wolves, 24% draw, 18% Derby — fair odds of 1.72, 4.17 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Wolves 1.95, Derby 0.86.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Wolves: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Wolves's rating is built from 15 Championship matches and Derby's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.
Key facts
- Wolves are 4th on 28 points from 15 games; Derby are 23rd on 10 points from 15 games — Championship.
- Wolves are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Wrexham.
- Derby have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Bolton.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 11 April 2018, ended Wolves 2–0 Derby.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Wolves vs Derby
Has the model earned this number?
Wolves at 58%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Wolves vs Derby
Wolves
Championship
- D1-1away to Wrexham7 November 2026
- W2-1away to Bristol City4 November 2026
- W3-0Cardiff31 October 2026
- W1-0Watford24 October 2026
- D1-1Portsmouth20 October 2026
Derby
Championship
- W3-1Bolton6 November 2026
- L0-4Norwich3 November 2026
- L1-4away to Millwall31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Sheffield Utd24 October 2026
- L0-1Stoke City17 October 2026
What these results say
- Wolves went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Wolves scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Derby conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Derby failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Wolves | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 18 | +8 | 28 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 30 | -16 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Wolves
Chance to finish in the top two · 21% today
Derby
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 47% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Derby vs Wolves
Derby and Wolves have met 6 times in the records we hold, they have won 3 each.
The record
Wolves won the last one 2–0 on 11 Apr 2018.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 |
| Wolves | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 22 goals, an average of 3.67 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 11 Apr 2018
ChampionshipWolves 2–0 Derby - 12 Aug 2017
ChampionshipDerby 0–2 Wolves - 29 Apr 2017
ChampionshipDerby 3–1 Wolves - 5 Nov 2016
ChampionshipWolves 2–3 Derby - 27 Feb 2016
ChampionshipWolves 2–1 Derby - 18 Oct 2015
ChampionshipDerby 4–2 Wolves
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Wolves' attack rates 30% above Derby's, and Wolves concede 27% fewer than Derby. That gives Wolves the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Wolves and Derby
Wolves
GoalsAssists
- Fer López63
Derby
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Wolves a 10.3% chance of the title and Derby 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wolves the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Wolves against 0.86 for Derby. Wolves's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.56 for Derby.
How the model reaches 58% for Wolves to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Wolves to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Wolves's ratings add 7 points and Derby's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 58%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Wolves's ratings49%+7
- Derby's ratings58%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Wolves at home · Derby away
League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
WolvesDerby
Wolves are 4th after 15 Championship matches (between 1st and 9th so far); Derby are 23rd after 15 (between 13th and 23rd). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Wolves 15, Derby 15.
Wolves score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Derby have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Wolves
- at Lincoln28 Nov · Championshipwin 44%
- vs Southampton5 Dec · Championshipwin 36%
- at QPR8 Dec · Championshipwin 36%
- vs Millwall12 Dec · Championshipwin 49%
Derby
- vs Watford28 Nov · Championshipwin 43%
- at Middlesbrough5 Dec · Championshipwin 16%
- vs Bristol City9 Dec · Championshipwin 40%
- at Blackburn12 Dec · Championshipwin 25%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.