Flamengo
vs
Atletico Paranaense
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Flamengo 2–0 Atletico Paranaense
The model makes it 65% Flamengo, 20% draw, 15% Atletico Paranaense — fair odds of 1.54, 5.00 and 6.67.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Flamengo 2.44, Atletico Paranaense 0.91.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 60% of the time, over 1,915 settled matches.
One-sided: Flamengo are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 4 November 2026. Flamengo's rating is built from 71 Brazilian Serie A matches and Atletico Paranaense's from 33, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,092 matches.
Key facts
- Flamengo are top on 73 points from 33 games; Atletico Paranaense are 5th on 54 points from 33 games — Serie A.
- Flamengo are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 4-1 win away to Vasco da Gama.
- Atletico Paranaense are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Gremio.
- Last 6 meetings: Flamengo 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 May 2026, ended Atletico Paranaense 1–1 Flamengo.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense
Has the model earned this number?
Flamengo at 65%: of 456 settled 65–100% forecasts, 67.5% came in (average 73.1%). Read it as optimistic. The full record.
Form going into Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense
Flamengo
Serie A
- W4-1away to Vasco da Gama29 October 2026
- W3-2Atletico Mineiro26 October 2026
- W3-0away to Bahia18 October 2026
- W1-0Fluminense11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Santos8 October 2026
Atletico Paranaense
Serie A
- L0-2away to Gremio30 October 2026
- D1-1away to Vitoria24 October 2026
- L0-2Palmeiras17 October 2026
- W4-1away to Chapecoense12 October 2026
- D2-2Atletico Mineiro8 October 2026
What these results say
- Flamengo went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Flamengo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Flamengo won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Paranaense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Paranaense failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 33 | 22 | 7 | 4 | 68 | 28 | +40 | 73 |
| 5 | Atletico Paranaense | 33 | 15 | 9 | 9 | 50 | 40 | +10 | 54 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo
Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo have met 6 times in the records we hold, Flamengo has won 3 of them to Atletico Paranaense's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at Atletico Paranaense on 17 May 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Paranaense | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Flamengo | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 13 goals, an average of 2.17 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 17 May 2026
Serie AAtletico Paranaense 1–1 Flamengo - 29 Sep 2024
Serie AFlamengo 1–0 Atletico Paranaense - 16 Jun 2024
Serie AAtletico Paranaense 1–1 Flamengo - 14 Sep 2023
Serie AFlamengo 0–3 Atletico Paranaense - 13 Jul 2023
Copa Do BrasilAtletico Paranaense 0–2 Flamengo - 6 Jul 2023
Copa Do BrasilFlamengo 2–1 Atletico Paranaense
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Flamengo's attack rates 31% above Atletico Paranaense's, and Flamengo concede 31% fewer than Atletico Paranaense. That gives Flamengo the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Paranaense | 1.01 | 1.17 |
| Flamengo | 1.32 | 0.81 |
Leading scorers: Flamengo and Atletico Paranaense
Flamengo
GoalsAssists
- Pedro186
- Samuel Lino119
Atletico Paranaense
GoalsAssists
- K. Viveros213
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Flamengo a 80.1% chance of the title and Atletico Paranaense 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Flamengo the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.44 expected goals for Flamengo against 0.91 for Atletico Paranaense. Flamengo's attack/defence rating is 1.32/0.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.01/1.17 for Atletico Paranaense.
How the model reaches 65% for Flamengo to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Flamengo to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Flamengo's ratings add 9 points and Atletico Paranaense's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 65%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage45%+9
- Both sides at this match's level46%+1
- Flamengo's ratings55%+9
- Atletico Paranaense's ratings65%+10
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Flamengo at home · Atletico Paranaense away
League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Flamengo 33, Atletico Paranaense 33.
Flamengo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (15 goals); Atletico Paranaense have let in 11 there.
Atletico Paranaense score most often in the 0–15 minute window (13 goals); Flamengo have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Flamengo
- at Palmeiras21 Nov · Serie Awin 27%
- at Coritiba29 Nov · Serie Awin 57%
- vs Chapecoense2 Dec · Serie Awin 84%
Atletico Paranaense
- vs Remo22 Nov · Serie Awin 56%
- at Mirassol29 Nov · Serie Awin 32%
- vs Sao Paulo2 Dec · Serie Awin 51%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.