Flamengo
vs
Gremio
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Flamengo 2–0 Gremio
The model makes it 71% Flamengo, 19% draw, 10% Gremio — fair odds of 1.41, 5.26 and 10.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Flamengo 2.47, Gremio 0.65.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,420 settled matches.
One-sided: Flamengo are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 21 October 2026. Flamengo's rating is built from 69 Brazilian Serie A matches and Gremio's from 69, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,069 matches.
Key facts
- Flamengo are top on 67 points from 31 games; Gremio are 18th on 31 points from 31 games — Serie A.
- Flamengo are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-0 win away to Bahia.
- Gremio have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat at home to Cruzeiro.
- Last 6 meetings: Flamengo 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended Gremio 0–1 Flamengo.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Flamengo vs Gremio
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Flamengo at 71% here. Across 4,371 settled matches (as of 21 October 2026), 345 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 64.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.7%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Flamengo vs Gremio
Flamengo
- W3-0away to Bahia18 October 2026
- W1-0Fluminense11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Santos8 October 2026
- W2-1RB Bragantino20 September 2026
- W2-1Corinthians13 September 2026
Gremio
- L2-4Cruzeiro18 October 2026
- D1-1Internacional11 October 2026
- D1-1away to Remo7 October 2026
- D0-0Palmeiras20 September 2026
- L2-3away to Botafogo16 September 2026
What these results say
- Flamengo went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Flamengo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Flamengo won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gremio did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Gremio scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gremio conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 61 | 25 | +36 | 67 |
| 18 | Gremio | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 34 | 44 | -10 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Flamengo vs Gremio
- 10 May 2026Gremio 0–1 FlamengoSerie A
- 31 August 2025Flamengo 1–1 GremioSerie A
- 13 April 2025Gremio 0–2 FlamengoSerie A
- 22 September 2024Gremio 3–2 FlamengoSerie A
- 13 June 2024Flamengo 2–1 GremioSerie A
- 26 October 2023Gremio 3–2 FlamengoSerie A
Leading scorers: Flamengo and Gremio
Flamengo
GoalsAssists
- Pedro166
- Samuel Lino98
Gremio
GoalsAssists
- Carlos Vinícius111
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Flamengo carry a model rating of 7.1 against 6.6 for Gremio. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.47 goals for Flamengo and 0.65 for Gremio. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Flamengo rate 1.24 in attack and 0.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gremio rate 0.76 and 1.26.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Flamengo a 63.2% chance of the title and Gremio 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,110 correct results out of 4,378 settled predictions (48%), with 443 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Flamengo the highest probability at 71%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.47 expected goals for Flamengo against 0.65 for Gremio. Flamengo's attack/defence rating is 1.24/0.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.26 for Gremio.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Flamengo at home · Gremio away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Flamengo 31, Gremio 31.
Flamengo score most often in the 46–60 minute window (15 goals); Gremio have let in 10 there.
Gremio score most often in the 46–60 minute window (11 goals); Flamengo have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Flamengo
- vs Atletico Paranaense18 Nov · Serie Awin 62%
- at Palmeiras22 Nov · Serie Awin 28%
Gremio
- vs Bahia18 Nov · Serie Awin 37%
- at Santos22 Nov · Serie Awin 20%
- at Corinthians29 Nov · Serie Awin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.