Atletico Paranaense
vs
Vasco da Gama
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Atletico Paranaense 2–1 Vasco da Gama
The model makes it 54% Atletico Paranaense, 24% draw, 22% Vasco da Gama — fair odds of 1.85, 4.17 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Atletico Paranaense 1.98, Vasco da Gama 1.07.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,420 settled matches.
Edge to Atletico Paranaense: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Atletico Paranaense are 3rd on 53 points from 31 games; Vasco da Gama are 15th on 35 points from 30 games — Serie A.
- Atletico Paranaense have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Palmeiras.
- Vasco da Gama have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Sao Paulo.
- Last 6 meetings: Vasco da Gama 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended Vasco da Gama 1–0 Atletico Paranaense.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Paranaense at 54% here. Across 4,371 settled matches (as of 21 October 2026), 1,073 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama
Atletico Paranaense
- L0-2Palmeiras17 October 2026
- W4-1away to Chapecoense12 October 2026
- D2-2Atletico Mineiro8 October 2026
- W2-1Bahia20 September 2026
- D3-3away to Coritiba12 September 2026
Vasco da Gama
- L0-1away to Sao Paulo18 October 2026
- D0-0Remo10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Botafogo7 October 2026
- W5-0Coritiba19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Gremio12 September 2026
What these results say
- Atletico Paranaense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Paranaense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Atletico Paranaense had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 49 | 37 | +12 | 53 |
| 15 | Vasco da Gama | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 35 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco da Gama
- 10 May 2026Vasco da Gama 1–0 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 12 September 2024Atletico Paranaense 2–1 Vasco da GamaCopa Do Brasil
- 29 August 2024Vasco da Gama 2–1 Atletico ParanaenseCopa Do Brasil
- 27 August 2024Vasco da Gama 2–1 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 5 May 2024Atletico Paranaense 1–0 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 25 November 2023Atletico Paranaense 0–0 Vasco da GamaSerie A
Leading scorers: Atletico Paranaense and Vasco da Gama
Atletico Paranaense
GoalsAssists
- K. Viveros213
Vasco da Gama
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 36 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Atletico Paranaense carry a model rating of 6.82 against 6.68 for Vasco da Gama. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.98 goals for Atletico Paranaense and 1.07 for Vasco da Gama. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atletico Paranaense rate 1.07 in attack and 1.15 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vasco da Gama rate 0.83 and 1.17.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,110 correct results out of 4,378 settled predictions (48%), with 443 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Paranaense the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense against 1.07 for Vasco da Gama. Atletico Paranaense's attack/defence rating is 1.07/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.17 for Vasco da Gama.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Atletico Paranaense at home · Vasco da Gama away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Atletico Paranaense 31, Vasco da Gama 30.
Atletico Paranaense score most often in the 0–15 minute window (13 goals); Vasco da Gama have let in 4 there.
Vasco da Gama score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Atletico Paranaense have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Atletico Paranaense
- at Flamengo18 Nov · Serie Awin 16%
- vs Remo22 Nov · Serie Awin 59%
- at Mirassol29 Nov · Serie Awin 32%
Vasco da Gama
- vs Internacional18 Nov · Serie Awin 47%
- at RB Bragantino22 Nov · Serie Awin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.