Sao Paulo
vs
Corinthians
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Sao Paulo 1–0 Corinthians
The model makes it 46% Sao Paulo, 30% draw, 24% Corinthians — fair odds of 2.17, 3.33 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Sao Paulo 1.38, Corinthians 0.85.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,036 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 22 October 2026. Sao Paulo's rating is built from 69 Brazilian Serie A matches and Corinthians's from 69, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,069 matches.
Key facts
- Sao Paulo are 9th on 42 points from 31 games; Corinthians are 16th on 33 points from 31 games — Serie A.
- Sao Paulo have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Vasco da Gama.
- Corinthians have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Vitoria.
- Last 6 meetings: Sao Paulo 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended Corinthians 3–2 Sao Paulo.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sao Paulo vs Corinthians
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sao Paulo at 46% here. Across 4,394 settled matches (as of 22 October 2026), 2,039 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sao Paulo vs Corinthians
Sao Paulo
- W1-0Vasco da Gama18 October 2026
- W2-1Vitoria11 October 2026
- L0-2away to Cruzeiro8 October 2026
- L1-2Santos2 October 2026
- W1-0Internacional20 September 2026
Corinthians
- D1-1Vitoria19 October 2026
- L1-4away to Palmeiras11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Internacional7 October 2026
- L1-3Fluminense20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Flamengo13 September 2026
What these results say
- Sao Paulo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Corinthians did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Corinthians scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Corinthians conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sao Paulo | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 36 | 35 | +1 | 42 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 31 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 32 | 39 | -7 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Corinthians
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 42% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Sao Paulo vs Corinthians
- 10 May 2026Corinthians 3–2 Sao PauloSerie A
- 18 January 2026Corinthians 1–1 Sao PauloPaulista - A1
- 20 November 2025Corinthians 3–1 Sao PauloSerie A
- 20 July 2025Sao Paulo 2–0 CorinthiansSerie A
- 26 January 2025Sao Paulo 3–1 CorinthiansPaulista - A1
- 29 September 2024Sao Paulo 3–1 CorinthiansSerie A
Leading scorers: Sao Paulo and Corinthians
Sao Paulo
GoalsAssists
- J. Calleri101
- Luciano92
Corinthians
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 32 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sao Paulo carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.61 for Corinthians. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for Sao Paulo and 0.85 for Corinthians. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sao Paulo rate 0.74 in attack and 1.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Corinthians rate 0.73 and 1.18.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,124 correct results out of 4,403 settled predictions (48%), with 444 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sao Paulo the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Sao Paulo against 0.85 for Corinthians. Sao Paulo's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.18 for Corinthians.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sao Paulo at home · Corinthians away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Sao Paulo 31, Corinthians 31.
Sao Paulo score most often in the 61–75 minute window (11 goals); Corinthians have let in 2 there.
Corinthians score most often in the 46–60 minute window (9 goals); Sao Paulo have let in 14 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Sao Paulo
- vs Fluminense18 Nov · Serie Awin 36%
- at Botafogo22 Nov · Serie Awin 27%
- vs Remo29 Nov · Serie Awin 48%
Corinthians
- vs Botafogo18 Nov · Serie Awin 41%
- at Atletico Mineiro22 Nov · Serie Awin 20%
- vs Gremio29 Nov · Serie Awin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.