Internacional
vs
Coritiba
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Internacional 1–0 Coritiba
The model makes it 49% Internacional, 27% draw, 24% Coritiba — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Internacional 1.69, Coritiba 1.03.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,028 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 21 October 2026. Internacional's rating is built from 69 Brazilian Serie A matches and Coritiba's from 31, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,069 matches.
Key facts
- Internacional are 17th on 32 points from 31 games; Coritiba are 12th on 39 points from 31 games — Serie A.
- Internacional have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Mirassol.
- Coritiba have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Atletico Mineiro.
- Last 6 meetings: Internacional 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 9 May 2026, ended Coritiba 2–2 Internacional.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Internacional vs Coritiba
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Internacional at 49% here. Across 4,371 settled matches (as of 21 October 2026), 2,030 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Internacional vs Coritiba
Internacional
- L0-2away to Mirassol16 October 2026
- D1-1away to Gremio11 October 2026
- W2-1Corinthians7 October 2026
- L0-1away to Sao Paulo20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Chapecoense12 September 2026
Coritiba
- L0-1away to Atletico Mineiro17 October 2026
- D1-1Botafogo12 October 2026
- L0-4away to Fluminense9 October 2026
- L0-5away to Vasco da Gama19 September 2026
- D3-3Atletico Paranaense12 September 2026
What these results say
- Internacional conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Coritiba did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Coritiba conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Internacional | 31 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 33 | 40 | -7 | 32 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 38 | 49 | -11 | 39 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Internacional
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 43% today
Coritiba
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 7% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Internacional vs Coritiba
- 9 May 2026Coritiba 2–2 InternacionalSerie A
- 29 October 2023Internacional 3–4 CoritibaSerie A
- 22 June 2023Coritiba 0–1 InternacionalSerie A
- 23 October 2022Coritiba 1–1 InternacionalSerie A
- 25 June 2022Internacional 3–0 CoritibaSerie A
- 8 November 2020Internacional 2–2 CoritibaSerie A
Leading scorers: Internacional and Coritiba
Internacional
GoalsAssists
- J. Carbonero74
Coritiba
GoalsAssists
- Pedro Rocha81
- Breno Lopes81
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Internacional carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.56 for Coritiba. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.69 goals for Internacional and 1.03 for Coritiba. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Internacional rate 0.75 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Coritiba rate 0.79 and 1.43.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Coritiba, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,110 correct results out of 4,378 settled predictions (48%), with 443 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Internacional the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Internacional against 1.03 for Coritiba. Internacional's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.43 for Coritiba.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Internacional at home · Coritiba away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Internacional 31, Coritiba 31.
Internacional score most often in the 16–30 minute window (7 goals); Coritiba have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Internacional
- at Vasco da Gama18 Nov · Serie Awin 25%
- vs Vitoria22 Nov · Serie Awin 45%
- vs RB Bragantino29 Nov · Serie Awin 39%
Coritiba
- vs Santos18 Nov · Serie Awin 34%
- at Bahia22 Nov · Serie Awin 20%
- vs Flamengo29 Nov · Serie Awin 19%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.