Clausura - 20 · 18 November 2026, 21:00 UTC

2 de Mayo vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo Division Profesional - Clausura prediction

Pedro Juan Caballero

Our model says: 2 de Mayo 1–0 Club Sp. San Lorenzo

The model makes it 54% 2 de Mayo, 27% draw, 19% Club Sp. San Lorenzo — fair odds of 1.85, 3.70 and 5.26.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).

Expected goals: 2 de Mayo 1.70, Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0.78.

Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 60% of the time, over 1,915 settled matches.

Edge to 2 de Mayo: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 4 November 2026. 2 de Mayo's rating is built from 40 Paraguayan Primera División Clausura matches and Club Sp. San Lorenzo's from 18, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • 2 de Mayo are 5th on 30 points from 18 games; Club Sp. San Lorenzo are bottom on 10 points from 18 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
  • 2 de Mayo are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Sportivo Trinidense.
  • Club Sp. San Lorenzo have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Nacional Asuncion.
  • Last 6 meetings: 2 de Mayo 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 5 September 2026, ended Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1–2 2 de Mayo.

More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: 2 de Mayo vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo

45%
Both teams to score
45%
Over 2.5 goals
55%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

2 de Mayo win Draw Club Sp. San Lorenzo win
  1. 1–014%
  2. 2–012%
  3. 1–112%
  4. 2–19%
  5. 0–09%
  6. 3–07%
  7. 0–16%

Scores read 2 de Mayo first; the other scorelines share the remaining 31%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

2 de Mayo at 54%: of 1,452 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.1% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into 2 de Mayo vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo

2 de Mayo

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • D0-0Sportivo Trinidense3 November 2026
  • L0-1away to Club Guarani30 October 2026
  • D1-1Deportivo Recoleta24 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Olimpia17 October 2026
  • W1-0Sportivo Ameliano12 October 2026

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • W2-0away to Nacional Asuncion3 November 2026
  • W2-1Libertad Asuncion31 October 2026
  • L1-3Cerro Porteno25 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Sportivo Luqueno18 October 2026
  • D1-1Sportivo Trinidense10 October 2026

What these results say

  • 2 de Mayo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for 2 de Mayo had two goals or fewer.
  • Club Sp. San Lorenzo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Club Sp. San Lorenzo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Club Sp. San Lorenzo.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Division Profesional - Clausura table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
52 de Mayo188641818030
12Club Sp. San Lorenzo1824121230-1810

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

2 de Mayo

Chance to finish in the top four · 35% today

Win 45%
Draw 21%
Defeat 15%

From our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: 2 de Mayo vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo

  • 5 September 2026Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1–2 2 de MayoDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 22 May 20262 de Mayo 0–1 Club Sp. San LorenzoDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 17 March 2026Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1–1 2 de MayoDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 8 September 2023Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0–1 2 de MayoDivision Intermedia
  • 5 June 20232 de Mayo 2–1 Club Sp. San LorenzoDivision Intermedia
  • 11 July 2022Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1–0 2 de MayoDivision Intermedia

Leading scorers: 2 de Mayo and Club Sp. San Lorenzo

2 de Mayo

GoalsAssists

  • D. Acosta51

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

GoalsAssists

  • M. Ferreira40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives 2 de Mayo a 0.1% chance of the title and Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

2 de Mayo Club Sp. San Lorenzo
0.55 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.48
1.35 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.9
1.70 Model expected goals (this match) 0.78

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives 2 de Mayo the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.70 expected goals for 2 de Mayo against 0.78 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo. 2 de Mayo's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.9 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo.

2 de Mayo carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.16 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo.

How the model reaches 54% for 2 de Mayo to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for 2 de Mayo to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, 2 de Mayo's ratings add 6 points and Club Sp. San Lorenzo's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 54%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level42%−2
  4. 2 de Mayo's ratings48%+6
  5. Club Sp. San Lorenzo's ratings54%+6

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

2 de MayoClub Sp. San Lorenzo
18Matches18
8W 6D 4LRecord2W 4D 12L
18 1.0 per gameGoals scored12 0.7 per game
18 1.0 per gameGoals conceded30 1.7 per game
7 of 18Clean sheets2 of 18
6 of 18Failed to score9 of 18
2 of 2Penalties scored4 of 5
44 2.4 per gameYellow cards41 2.3 per game
3Red cards3
5-3-2 1×Usual shape4-4-2 11×

2 de Mayo at home · Club Sp. San Lorenzo away

9Played9
4W 4D 1LRecord1W 2D 6L
8–6Goals for – against7–14
5 of 9Clean sheets1 of 9

League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: 2 de Mayo 18, Club Sp. San Lorenzo 18.

2 de Mayo scored 314353
Club Sp. San Lorenzo conceded 516349

2 de Mayo score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Club Sp. San Lorenzo have let in 4 there.

Club Sp. San Lorenzo scored 333210
2 de Mayo conceded 231326

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 2 matches, by difficulty

2 de Mayo

  • at Libertad Asuncion25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 25%
  • vs Nacional Asuncion29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 29%

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

  • vs Sportivo Ameliano25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 37%
  • at Olimpia29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 10%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.