PEC Zwolle
vs
ADO Den Haag
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: PEC Zwolle 1–2 ADO Den Haag
The model makes it 33% PEC Zwolle, 27% draw, 40% ADO Den Haag — fair odds of 3.03, 3.70 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: PEC Zwolle 1.38, ADO Den Haag 1.57.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to ADO Den Haag: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- PEC Zwolle are 17th on 4 points from 8 games; ADO Den Haag are 16th on 6 points from 9 games — Eredivisie.
- PEC Zwolle have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Cambuur.
- ADO Den Haag are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to PSV Eindhoven.
- Last 5 meetings: ADO Den Haag 3 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 17 February 2023, ended ADO Den Haag 3–1 PEC Zwolle.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag
Has the model earned this number?
It puts ADO Den Haag at 40% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag
PEC Zwolle
- L0-1Cambuur11 October 2026
- L0-3away to Groningen18 September 2026
- L0-7Feyenoord13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Sparta Rotterdam4 September 2026
- L1-3NEC Nijmegen29 August 2026
ADO Den Haag
- W2-1PSV Eindhoven17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Telstar11 October 2026
- D1-1Cambuur19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Twente12 September 2026
- L2-3Fortuna Sittard6 September 2026
What these results say
- PEC Zwolle did not win any of these 5 matches.
- PEC Zwolle conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for PEC Zwolle had three goals or more.
- ADO Den Haag conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- ADO Den Haag failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- ADO Den Haag scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 4 |
| 16 | ADO Den Haag | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: ADO Den Haag vs PEC Zwolle
ADO Den Haag and PEC Zwolle have met 5 times in the records we hold, ADO Den Haag has won 3 of them to PEC Zwolle's 2.
The record
ADO Den Haag won the last one 3–1 on 17 Feb 2023.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 |
| PEC Zwolle | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 7 |
Between them these 5 meetings produced 14 goals, an average of 2.80 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 17 Feb 2023
Eerste DivisieADO Den Haag 3–1 PEC Zwolle - 16 Sep 2022
Eerste DivisiePEC Zwolle 1–2 ADO Den Haag - 9 May 2021
EredivisiePEC Zwolle 0–1 ADO Den Haag - 23 Dec 2020
EredivisieADO Den Haag 0–2 PEC Zwolle - 20 Oct 2019
EredivisiePEC Zwolle 3–1 ADO Den Haag
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag | 0.72 | 1.27 |
| PEC Zwolle | 0.59 | 1.48 |
Leading scorers: PEC Zwolle and ADO Den Haag
PEC Zwolle
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
ADO Den Haag
GoalsAssists
- Y. Eduardo32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
PEC Zwolle carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.57 for ADO Den Haag. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.57 for ADO Den Haag. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
PEC Zwolle rate 0.59 in attack and 1.48 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; ADO Den Haag rate 0.72 and 1.27.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,111 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives ADO Den Haag the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for PEC Zwolle against 1.57 for ADO Den Haag. PEC Zwolle's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.27 for ADO Den Haag.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
PEC Zwolle at home · ADO Den Haag away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
PEC ZwolleADO Den Haag
PEC Zwolle are 16th after 8 Eredivisie matches (between 13th and 16th so far); ADO Den Haag are 16th after 9 (between 15th and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: PEC Zwolle 8, ADO Den Haag 9.
ADO Den Haag score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); PEC Zwolle have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
PEC Zwolle
- at Willem II6 Nov · Eredivisiewin 34%
- at Telstar21 Nov · Eredivisiewin 21%
- vs AZ Alkmaar29 Nov · Eredivisiewin 18%
ADO Den Haag
- vs Sparta Rotterdam7 Nov · Eredivisiewin 46%
- at Ajax22 Nov · Eredivisiewin 13%
- vs Utrecht29 Nov · Eredivisiewin 39%
- vs Excelsior6 Dec · Eredivisiewin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.