Groningen
vs
Sparta Rotterdam
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Groningen 2–1 Sparta Rotterdam
The model makes it 60% Groningen, 21% draw, 19% Sparta Rotterdam — fair odds of 1.67, 4.76 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Groningen 2.48, Sparta Rotterdam 1.17.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Groningen: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Groningen are 6th on 14 points from 8 games; Sparta Rotterdam are 12th on 9 points from 9 games — Eredivisie.
- Groningen are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 5-1 win away to Excelsior.
- Sparta Rotterdam have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Willem II.
- Last 6 meetings: Sparta Rotterdam 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 31 January 2026, ended Sparta Rotterdam 2–0 Groningen.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Groningen at 60% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam
Groningen
- W5-1away to Excelsior11 October 2026
- W3-0PEC Zwolle18 September 2026
- D1-1away to GO Ahead Eagles12 September 2026
- D2-2Twente6 September 2026
- L2-3Fortuna Sittard28 August 2026
Sparta Rotterdam
- W3-2Willem II17 October 2026
- D3-3away to GO Ahead Eagles10 October 2026
- L0-4Heerenveen19 September 2026
- L1-4away to PSV Eindhoven13 September 2026
- D2-2PEC Zwolle4 September 2026
What these results say
- Groningen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Groningen conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Groningen had three goals or more.
- Sparta Rotterdam conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Sparta Rotterdam had three goals or more.
- Sparta Rotterdam failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 14 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 22 | -6 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam
- 31 January 2026Sparta Rotterdam 2–0 GroningenEredivisie
- 30 October 2025Sparta Rotterdam 5–2 GroningenKNVB Beker
- 19 October 2025Groningen 0–2 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- 2 February 2025Sparta Rotterdam 1–0 GroningenEredivisie
- 9 November 2024Groningen 1–0 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- 28 May 2023Groningen 0–5 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
Leading scorers: Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam
Groningen
GoalsAssists
- T. van Bergen52
- B. Willumsson50
Sparta Rotterdam
GoalsAssists
- M. Zonneveld61
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Groningen carry a model rating of 6.79 against 6.53 for Sparta Rotterdam. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.48 goals for Groningen and 1.17 for Sparta Rotterdam. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Groningen rate 0.94 in attack and 1.06 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sparta Rotterdam rate 0.75 and 1.43.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Groningen a 0.8% chance of the title and Sparta Rotterdam 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Groningen the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.48 expected goals for Groningen against 1.17 for Sparta Rotterdam. Groningen's attack/defence rating is 0.94/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.43 for Sparta Rotterdam.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Groningen at home · Sparta Rotterdam away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
GroningenSparta Rotterdam
Groningen are 6th after 8 Eredivisie matches (between 2nd and 9th so far); Sparta Rotterdam are 12th after 9 (between 5th and 15th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: Groningen 8, Sparta Rotterdam 9.
Sparta Rotterdam score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Groningen have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Groningen
- at AZ Alkmaar8 Nov · Eredivisiewin 25%
- vs Heerenveen21 Nov · Eredivisiewin 44%
- vs Willem II27 Nov · Eredivisiewin 71%
Sparta Rotterdam
- at ADO Den Haag7 Nov · Eredivisiewin 29%
- vs AZ Alkmaar22 Nov · Eredivisiewin 23%
- at Cambuur28 Nov · Eredivisiewin 33%
- vs NEC Nijmegen5 Dec · Eredivisiewin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.