Excelsior
vs
Twente
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Excelsior 1–2 Twente
The model makes it 26% Excelsior, 26% draw, 48% Twente — fair odds of 3.85, 3.85 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Excelsior 1.18, Twente 1.79.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
One-sided: Twente are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Excelsior are 10th on 11 points from 9 games; Twente are 4th on 17 points from 8 games — Eredivisie.
- Excelsior have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat away to Heerenveen.
- Twente are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Fortuna Sittard.
- Last 6 meetings: Twente 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 24 January 2026, ended Twente 0–0 Excelsior.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Excelsior vs Twente
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Twente at 48% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Excelsior vs Twente
Excelsior
- L0-4away to Heerenveen16 October 2026
- L1-5Groningen11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Ajax19 September 2026
- L1-2Utrecht13 September 2026
- D2-2away to NEC Nijmegen8 September 2026
Twente
- D1-1away to Fortuna Sittard10 October 2026
- W3-2PSV Eindhoven20 September 2026
- W2-0ADO Den Haag12 September 2026
- W1-0Telstar9 September 2026
- D2-2away to Groningen6 September 2026
What these results say
- Excelsior did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Excelsior conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Excelsior had three goals or more.
- Twente went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Twente scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Excelsior | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 11 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Excelsior vs Twente
- 24 January 2026Twente 0–0 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- 30 August 2025Excelsior 1–0 TwenteEredivisie
- 10 February 2024Excelsior 0–3 TwenteEredivisie
- 8 December 2023Twente 4–2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- 1 April 2023Excelsior 0–0 TwenteEredivisie
- 31 August 2022Twente 4–0 ExcelsiorEredivisie
Leading scorers: Excelsior and Twente
Excelsior
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Twente
GoalsAssists
- W. Weghorst42
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Excelsior carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.95 for Twente. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.18 goals for Excelsior and 1.79 for Twente. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Excelsior rate 0.79 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Twente rate 0.97 and 0.81.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Excelsior a 0% chance of the title and Twente 7.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Twente the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Excelsior against 1.79 for Twente. Excelsior's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.97/0.81 for Twente.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Excelsior at home · Twente away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
ExcelsiorTwente
Excelsior are 10th after 9 Eredivisie matches (between 1st and 10th so far); Twente are 4th after 8 (between 3rd and 14th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: Excelsior 9, Twente 8.
Excelsior score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Twente have let in 0 there.
Twente score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Excelsior have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Excelsior
- vs GO Ahead Eagles7 Nov · Eredivisiewin 39%
- at Feyenoord21 Nov · Eredivisiewin 12%
- vs Telstar28 Nov · Eredivisiewin 44%
- at ADO Den Haag6 Dec · Eredivisiewin 34%
Twente
- vs Pafos5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 54%
- vs Ajax8 Nov · Eredivisiewin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.