Telstar
vs
Utrecht
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Telstar 2–1 Utrecht
The model makes it 41% Telstar, 26% draw, 33% Utrecht — fair odds of 2.44, 3.85 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Telstar 1.75, Utrecht 1.50.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Telstar are 15th on 6 points from 9 games; Utrecht are 14th on 8 points from 8 games — Eredivisie.
- Telstar have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 3-4 defeat at home to Feyenoord.
- Utrecht have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Willem II.
- Last 2 meetings: Utrecht 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 11 April 2026, ended Utrecht 4–1 Telstar.
More Eredivisie predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Telstar vs Utrecht
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Telstar at 41% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Telstar vs Utrecht
Telstar
- L3-4Feyenoord17 October 2026
- D2-2ADO Den Haag11 October 2026
- L0-1away to AZ Alkmaar20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Heerenveen13 September 2026
- L0-1away to Twente9 September 2026
Utrecht
- W3-1Willem II11 October 2026
- L0-5away to Feyenoord20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Excelsior13 September 2026
- D3-3GO Ahead Eagles8 September 2026
- L1-6PSV Eindhoven30 August 2026
What these results say
- Telstar did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Telstar conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Utrecht conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Utrecht had three goals or more.
- Utrecht scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Telstar | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 6 |
| 14 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 25 | -11 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Telstar vs Utrecht
- 11 April 2026Utrecht 4–1 TelstarEredivisie
- 23 November 2025Telstar 1–1 UtrechtEredivisie
Leading scorers: Telstar and Utrecht
Telstar
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Utrecht
GoalsAssists
- Artem Stepanov50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Telstar carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.65 for Utrecht. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.75 goals for Telstar and 1.50 for Utrecht. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Telstar rate 0.74 in attack and 1.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Utrecht rate 0.85 and 1.28.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Utrecht, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Telstar the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Telstar against 1.50 for Utrecht. Telstar's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.28 for Utrecht.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Telstar at home · Utrecht away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
TelstarUtrecht
Telstar are 15th after 9 Eredivisie matches (between 2nd and 15th so far); Utrecht are 12th after 8 (between 12th and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: Telstar 9, Utrecht 8.
Utrecht score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Telstar have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Telstar
- at Fortuna Sittard7 Nov · Eredivisiewin 30%
- vs PEC Zwolle21 Nov · Eredivisiewin 55%
- at Excelsior28 Nov · Eredivisiewin 30%
- vs Groningen4 Dec · Eredivisiewin 33%
Utrecht
- vs NEC Nijmegen8 Nov · Eredivisiewin 39%
- vs Cambuur21 Nov · Eredivisiewin 53%
- at ADO Den Haag29 Nov · Eredivisiewin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.