NEC Nijmegen
vs
Fortuna Sittard
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: NEC Nijmegen 2–1 Fortuna Sittard
The model makes it 46% NEC Nijmegen, 26% draw, 28% Fortuna Sittard — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: NEC Nijmegen 2.14, Fortuna Sittard 1.37.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- NEC Nijmegen are 11th on 8 points from 7 games; Fortuna Sittard are 6th on 13 points from 7 games — Eredivisie.
- NEC Nijmegen are without a win in 4, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to GO Ahead Eagles.
- Fortuna Sittard have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 1-0 win away to Willem II.
- Last 6 meetings: NEC Nijmegen 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 28 February 2026, ended NEC Nijmegen 2–3 Fortuna Sittard.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard
Has the model earned this number?
It puts NEC Nijmegen at 46% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard
NEC Nijmegen
- D1-1GO Ahead Eagles20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Cambuur12 September 2026
- D2-2Excelsior8 September 2026
- L1-3Feyenoord5 September 2026
- W3-1away to PEC Zwolle29 August 2026
Fortuna Sittard
- W1-0away to Willem II19 September 2026
- L1-5Ajax12 September 2026
- W3-2away to ADO Den Haag6 September 2026
- W3-2away to Groningen28 August 2026
- L0-2AZ Alkmaar22 August 2026
What these results say
- NEC Nijmegen conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- NEC Nijmegen failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- NEC Nijmegen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fortuna Sittard scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fortuna Sittard conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 8 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard
- 28 February 2026NEC Nijmegen 2–3 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 31 August 2025Fortuna Sittard 3–2 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 19 January 2025NEC Nijmegen 4–1 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 31 August 2024Fortuna Sittard 0–3 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 2 April 2024Fortuna Sittard 1–1 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 15 December 2023NEC Nijmegen 4–1 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
Leading scorers: NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard
NEC Nijmegen
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Fortuna Sittard
- M. Ihattaren3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
NEC Nijmegen carry a model rating of 6.72 against 6.62 for Fortuna Sittard. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.14 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.37 for Fortuna Sittard. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
NEC Nijmegen rate 0.91 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fortuna Sittard rate 0.80 and 1.28.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Fortuna Sittard, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives NEC Nijmegen a 0.2% chance of the title and Fortuna Sittard 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NEC Nijmegen the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.14 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen against 1.37 for Fortuna Sittard. NEC Nijmegen's attack/defence rating is 0.91/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.28 for Fortuna Sittard.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
NEC Nijmegen at home · Fortuna Sittard away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: NEC Nijmegen 7, Fortuna Sittard 7.
Fortuna Sittard score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); NEC Nijmegen have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
NEC Nijmegen
- at Dinamo Zagreb22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 28%
- vs Groningen25 Oct · Eredivisiewin 41%
- at Heerenveen31 Oct · Eredivisiewin 32%
Fortuna Sittard
- vs Excelsior25 Oct · Eredivisiewin 35%
- at Feyenoord31 Oct · Eredivisiewin 17%
- vs Telstar7 Nov · Eredivisiewin 41%
- at GO Ahead Eagles22 Nov · Eredivisiewin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.