Groningen
vs
Ajax
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Groningen 1–2 Ajax
The model makes it 30% Groningen, 28% draw, 42% Ajax — fair odds of 3.33, 3.57 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Groningen 1.28, Ajax 1.76.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Groningen are 8th on 11 points from 7 games; Ajax are 5th on 14 points from 7 games — Eredivisie.
- Groningen are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 3-0 win at home to PEC Zwolle.
- Ajax are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Excelsior.
- Last 6 meetings: Ajax 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 May 2026, ended Ajax 2–0 Groningen.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Groningen vs Ajax
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ajax at 42% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Groningen vs Ajax
Groningen
- W3-0PEC Zwolle18 September 2026
- D1-1away to GO Ahead Eagles12 September 2026
- D2-2Twente6 September 2026
- L2-3Fortuna Sittard28 August 2026
- L1-5away to PSV Eindhoven23 August 2026
Ajax
- D2-2Excelsior19 September 2026
- W5-1Willem II15 September 2026
- W5-1away to Fortuna Sittard12 September 2026
- L1-3PSV Eindhoven5 September 2026
- W4-0away to Telstar30 August 2026
What these results say
- Groningen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Groningen failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Groningen conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ajax scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Ajax had three goals or more.
- Ajax conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Groningen | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 11 |
| 5 | Ajax | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Groningen vs Ajax
- 21 May 2026Ajax 2–0 GroningenEredivisie
- 7 March 2026Groningen 3–1 AjaxEredivisie
- 2 December 2025Ajax 2–0 GroningenEredivisie
- 14 May 2025Groningen 2–2 AjaxEredivisie
- 6 October 2024Ajax 3–1 GroningenEredivisie
- 16 May 2023Groningen 2–3 AjaxEredivisie
Leading scorers: Groningen and Ajax
Groningen
- T. van Bergen4 goals2 assists
- B. Willumsson4 goals
Ajax
- J. Brandt4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Groningen carry a model rating of 6.74 against 7.01 for Ajax. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.28 goals for Groningen and 1.76 for Ajax. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Groningen rate 0.85 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ajax rate 1.12 and 0.82.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Groningen a 0.1% chance of the title and Ajax 11.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ajax the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Groningen against 1.76 for Ajax. Groningen's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.12/0.82 for Ajax.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Groningen at home · Ajax away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: Groningen 7, Ajax 7.
Groningen score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Ajax have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Groningen
- at NEC Nijmegen25 Oct · Eredivisiewin 32%
- vs Sparta Rotterdam1 Nov · Eredivisiewin 51%
- at AZ Alkmaar8 Nov · Eredivisiewin 24%
- vs Heerenveen21 Nov · Eredivisiewin 41%
Ajax
- vs Atalanta22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 41%
- at Sparta Rotterdam25 Oct · Eredivisiewin 53%
- vs AZ Alkmaar31 Oct · Eredivisiewin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.