PEC Zwolle
vs
GO Ahead Eagles
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: PEC Zwolle 1–2 GO Ahead Eagles
The model makes it 29% PEC Zwolle, 26% draw, 45% GO Ahead Eagles — fair odds of 3.45, 3.85 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: PEC Zwolle 1.38, GO Ahead Eagles 2.04.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- PEC Zwolle are 16th on 4 points from 7 games; GO Ahead Eagles are 9th on 10 points from 7 games — Eredivisie.
- PEC Zwolle are without a win in 4, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Groningen.
- GO Ahead Eagles are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 1-1 draw away to NEC Nijmegen.
- Last 6 meetings: GO Ahead Eagles 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 5 April 2026, ended GO Ahead Eagles 5–0 PEC Zwolle.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: PEC Zwolle vs GO Ahead Eagles
Has the model earned this number?
It puts GO Ahead Eagles at 45% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into PEC Zwolle vs GO Ahead Eagles
PEC Zwolle
- L0-3away to Groningen18 September 2026
- L0-7Feyenoord13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Sparta Rotterdam4 September 2026
- L1-3NEC Nijmegen29 August 2026
- W2-0away to Heerenveen22 August 2026
GO Ahead Eagles
- D1-1away to NEC Nijmegen20 September 2026
- D1-1Groningen12 September 2026
- D3-3away to Utrecht8 September 2026
- L2-5away to AZ Alkmaar29 August 2026
- W3-1ADO Den Haag23 August 2026
What these results say
- PEC Zwolle failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- PEC Zwolle conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for PEC Zwolle had three goals or more.
- GO Ahead Eagles scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- GO Ahead Eagles conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for GO Ahead Eagles.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 4 |
| 9 | GO Ahead Eagles | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: PEC Zwolle vs GO Ahead Eagles
- 5 April 2026GO Ahead Eagles 5–0 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- 21 September 2025PEC Zwolle 0–2 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
- 11 May 2025PEC Zwolle 1–1 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
- 3 November 2024GO Ahead Eagles 2–2 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- 11 February 2024GO Ahead Eagles 1–1 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- 17 September 2023PEC Zwolle 1–1 GO Ahead EaglesEredivisie
Leading scorers: PEC Zwolle and GO Ahead Eagles
PEC Zwolle
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
GO Ahead Eagles
- S. Tengstedt5 goals2 assists
- V. Edvardsen3 goals2 assists
- S. Sigurðarson3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
PEC Zwolle carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.72 for GO Ahead Eagles. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for PEC Zwolle and 2.04 for GO Ahead Eagles. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
PEC Zwolle rate 0.64 in attack and 1.53 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; GO Ahead Eagles rate 0.91 and 1.17.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives PEC Zwolle a 0% chance of the title and GO Ahead Eagles 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives GO Ahead Eagles the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for PEC Zwolle against 2.04 for GO Ahead Eagles. PEC Zwolle's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/1.17 for GO Ahead Eagles.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
PEC Zwolle at home · GO Ahead Eagles away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: PEC Zwolle 7, GO Ahead Eagles 7.
GO Ahead Eagles score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); PEC Zwolle have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
PEC Zwolle
- at Utrecht24 Oct · Eredivisiewin 23%
- vs ADO Den Haag1 Nov · Eredivisiewin 39%
- at Willem II6 Nov · Eredivisiewin 34%
- at Telstar21 Nov · Eredivisiewin 25%
GO Ahead Eagles
- vs Telstar23 Oct · Eredivisiewin 45%
- at Cambuur31 Oct · Eredivisiewin 42%
- at Excelsior7 Nov · Eredivisiewin 31%
- vs Fortuna Sittard22 Nov · Eredivisiewin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.