Twente
vs
Utrecht
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Twente 2–1 Utrecht
The model makes it 54% Twente, 25% draw, 21% Utrecht — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Twente 2.35, Utrecht 1.04.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Twente are 4th on 16 points from 7 games; Utrecht are 15th on 5 points from 7 games — Eredivisie.
- Twente are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 3-2 win at home to PSV Eindhoven.
- Utrecht have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 0-5 defeat away to Feyenoord.
- Last 6 meetings: Utrecht 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 15 March 2026, ended Twente 0–2 Utrecht.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Twente vs Utrecht
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Twente at 54% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 705 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Twente vs Utrecht
Twente
- W3-2PSV Eindhoven20 September 2026
- W2-0ADO Den Haag12 September 2026
- W1-0Telstar9 September 2026
- D2-2away to Groningen6 September 2026
- W4-1away to Cambuur30 August 2026
Utrecht
- L0-5away to Feyenoord20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Excelsior13 September 2026
- D3-3GO Ahead Eagles8 September 2026
- L1-6PSV Eindhoven30 August 2026
- D3-3away to Sparta Rotterdam22 August 2026
What these results say
- Twente went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Twente scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Twente won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Utrecht conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Utrecht had three goals or more.
- Utrecht failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Twente | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 16 |
| 15 | Utrecht | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Twente vs Utrecht
- 15 March 2026Twente 0–2 UtrechtEredivisie
- 13 January 2026Utrecht 1–2 TwenteKNVB Beker
- 7 December 2025Utrecht 1–1 TwenteEredivisie
- 11 May 2025Twente 2–0 UtrechtEredivisie
- 1 September 2024Utrecht 2–1 TwenteEredivisie
- 18 February 2024Twente 0–1 UtrechtEredivisie
Leading scorers: Twente and Utrecht
Twente
- W. Weghorst4 goals1 assist
Utrecht
- Artem Stepanov5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Twente carry a model rating of 6.95 against 6.65 for Utrecht. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.35 goals for Twente and 1.04 for Utrecht. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Twente rate 0.99 in attack and 0.82 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Utrecht rate 0.86 and 1.29.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Twente a 8.1% chance of the title and Utrecht 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Twente the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Twente against 1.04 for Utrecht. Twente's attack/defence rating is 0.99/0.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1.29 for Utrecht.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Twente at home · Utrecht away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: Twente 7, Utrecht 7.
Twente score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Utrecht have let in 2 there.
Utrecht score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Twente have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Twente
- at Lincoln Red Imps FC22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 58%
- at AZ Alkmaar25 Oct · Eredivisiewin 32%
- at Excelsior1 Nov · Eredivisiewin 38%
Utrecht
- vs PEC Zwolle24 Oct · Eredivisiewin 52%
- at Telstar1 Nov · Eredivisiewin 34%
- vs NEC Nijmegen8 Nov · Eredivisiewin 38%
- vs Cambuur21 Nov · Eredivisiewin 50%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.