Cambuur
vs
AZ Alkmaar
Eredivisie prediction
Our model says: Cambuur 1–2 AZ Alkmaar
The model makes it 24% Cambuur, 24% draw, 52% AZ Alkmaar — fair odds of 4.17, 4.17 and 1.92. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Cambuur 1.26, AZ Alkmaar 2.44.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Cambuur are 14th on 5 points from 7 games; AZ Alkmaar are top on 19 points from 7 games — Eredivisie.
- Cambuur are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 1-1 draw away to ADO Den Haag.
- AZ Alkmaar are unbeaten in their last 5 (4 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Telstar.
- Last 6 meetings: AZ Alkmaar 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 25 February 2023, ended AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Cambuur.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AZ Alkmaar at 52% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 705 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar
Cambuur
- D1-1away to ADO Den Haag19 September 2026
- W3-0NEC Nijmegen12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Telstar6 September 2026
- L1-4Twente30 August 2026
- L2-5Feyenoord23 August 2026
AZ Alkmaar
- W1-0Telstar20 September 2026
- D1-1Willem II11 September 2026
- W3-2away to Heerenveen6 September 2026
- W5-2GO Ahead Eagles29 August 2026
- W2-0away to Fortuna Sittard22 August 2026
What these results say
- Cambuur scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cambuur failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cambuur conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- AZ Alkmaar went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- AZ Alkmaar scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- AZ Alkmaar won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Cambuur | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 5 |
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar
- 25 February 2023AZ Alkmaar 2–1 CambuurEredivisie
- 28 August 2022Cambuur 0–1 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 22 January 2022AZ Alkmaar 0–0 CambuurEredivisie
- 3 October 2021Cambuur 1–3 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 2 March 2017AZ Alkmaar 0–0 CambuurKNVB Beker
- 27 January 2016AZ Alkmaar 3–1 CambuurEredivisie
Leading scorers: Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar
Cambuur
- R. El Arguioui4 goals
- I. Hamache3 goals1 assist
AZ Alkmaar
- R. Daal4 goals
- M. Meerdink3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Cambuur carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.93 for AZ Alkmaar. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.26 goals for Cambuur and 2.44 for AZ Alkmaar. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cambuur rate 0.78 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AZ Alkmaar rate 1.04 and 0.88.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cambuur a 0% chance of the title and AZ Alkmaar 11.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AZ Alkmaar the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Cambuur against 2.44 for AZ Alkmaar. Cambuur's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.04/0.88 for AZ Alkmaar.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Cambuur at home · AZ Alkmaar away
League matches only, Eredivisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eredivisie matches this season: Cambuur 7, AZ Alkmaar 7.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Cambuur
- at Willem II24 Oct · Eredivisiewin 38%
- vs GO Ahead Eagles31 Oct · Eredivisiewin 32%
- vs PSV Eindhoven8 Nov · Eredivisiewin 18%
- at Utrecht21 Nov · Eredivisiewin 26%
AZ Alkmaar
- at Ararat-Armenia22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 60%
- vs Twente25 Oct · Eredivisiewin 39%
- at Ajax31 Oct · Eredivisiewin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.