Fixtures & Predictions
Serie A predictions
14 matches ahead, from 10 October to 17 October, each with the model's win / draw / win split and most likely score. The clearest favourite: AS Roma, 62% against Genoa. 1 is marked Tight game — the two sides within 3 points, where the draw is a real outcome. How the model works.
1 home · X draw · 2 away — fair odds, times in UTC
Saturday 10 October — 3 matches
- 13:00 UTC Genoa vs Fiorentina — model 30% / 30% / 40%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.33 · 3.33 · 2.50.
- 16:00 UTC Inter vs Parma — model 59% / 24% / 17%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.69 · 4.17 · 5.88.
- 18:45 UTC Napoli vs Frosinone — model 40% / 30% / 30%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.50 · 3.33 · 3.33.
Sunday 11 October — 5 matches
- 10:30 UTC Como vs AS Roma — model 29% / 29% / 42%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.45 · 3.45 · 2.38.
- 13:00 UTC Lazio vs Monza — model 45% / 28% / 27%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.22 · 3.57 · 3.70.
- 13:00 UTC Lecce vs Bologna — model 31% / 32% / 37%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.23 · 3.13 · 2.70.
- 16:00 UTC Sassuolo vs AC Milan — model 28% / 28% / 44%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.57 · 3.57 · 2.27.
- 18:45 UTC Cagliari vs Juventus — model 26% / 31% / 43%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.85 · 3.23 · 2.33.
Monday 12 October — 2 matches
- 16:30 UTC Atalanta vs Venezia — model 58% / 25% / 17%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.72 · 4.00 · 5.88.
- 18:45 UTC Torino vs Udinese — model 34% / 29% / 37%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.94 · 3.45 · 2.70. Tight game · draw in reach
Friday 16 October — 1 match
Saturday 17 October — 3 matches
- 13:00 UTC Venezia vs Napoli — model 18% / 25% / 57%, most likely 0-2, fair odds 5.56 · 4.00 · 1.75.
- 16:00 UTC Bologna vs Inter — model 23% / 26% / 51%, most likely 0-2, fair odds 4.35 · 3.85 · 1.96.
- 18:45 UTC AS Roma vs Genoa — model 62% / 23% / 15%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.61 · 4.35 · 6.67.
Last round: the model's hits and misses
18–20 September: the model called the result of 5 of 10 matches, 1 of them to the exact score.
- Monza 2–1 Sassuolo — the model said 40% / 28% / 32%, most likely 2-1: exact scoreline.
- Bologna 1–1 Torino — the model said 43% / 29% / 28%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
- Udinese 0–1 Cagliari — the model said 39% / 30% / 31%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
- AS Roma 2–2 Inter — the model said 40% / 26% / 34%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
- Venezia 0–2 Lazio — the model said 32% / 28% / 40%, most likely 1-2: result correct.
- Fiorentina 1–1 Napoli — the model said 35% / 30% / 35%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
- Frosinone 2–0 Como — the model said 32% / 26% / 42%, most likely 1-2: result missed.
- Parma 2–1 Genoa — the model said 42% / 30% / 28%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
- Juventus 2–0 Atalanta — the model said 46% / 29% / 25%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
- AC Milan 3–0 Lecce — the model said 47% / 27% / 26%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
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