AS Roma
vs
Sassuolo
Serie A prediction
Our model says: AS Roma 2–0 Sassuolo
The model makes it 66% AS Roma, 21% draw, 13% Sassuolo — fair odds of 1.52, 4.76 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: AS Roma 2.28, Sassuolo 0.74.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
One-sided: AS Roma are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. AS Roma's rating is built from 45 Serie A matches and Sassuolo's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 831 matches.
Key facts
- AS Roma are 3rd on 17 points from 7 games; Sassuolo are 13th on 8 points from 7 games — Serie A.
- AS Roma are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to Genoa.
- Sassuolo are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to Frosinone.
- Last 6 meetings: AS Roma 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 10 January 2026, ended AS Roma 2–0 Sassuolo.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: AS Roma vs Sassuolo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AS Roma at 66% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 368 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 65.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into AS Roma vs Sassuolo
AS Roma
Serie A
- W2-0Genoa17 October 2026
- D0-0away to Como11 October 2026
- D2-2Inter19 September 2026
- W2-0away to Torino14 September 2026
- W2-1Atalanta5 September 2026
Sassuolo
Serie A
- L2-4away to Frosinone16 October 2026
- D1-1AC Milan11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Monza18 September 2026
- W3-2Juventus13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Bologna6 September 2026
What these results say
- AS Roma went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- AS Roma scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sassuolo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sassuolo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Sassuolo.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | AS Roma | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 3 | +13 | 17 |
| 13 | Sassuolo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: AS Roma vs Sassuolo
- 10 January 2026AS Roma 2–0 SassuoloSerie A
- 26 October 2025Sassuolo 0–1 AS RomaSerie A
- 17 March 2024AS Roma 1–0 SassuoloSerie A
- 3 December 2023Sassuolo 1–2 AS RomaSerie A
- 12 March 2023AS Roma 3–4 SassuoloSerie A
- 9 November 2022Sassuolo 1–1 AS RomaSerie A
Leading scorers: AS Roma and Sassuolo
AS Roma
GoalsAssists
- D. Malen60
Sassuolo
GoalsAssists
- Vasilije Adžić31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
AS Roma carry a model rating of 7.36 against 6.84 for Sassuolo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.28 goals for AS Roma and 0.74 for Sassuolo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AS Roma rate 1.50 in attack and 0.55 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sassuolo rate 1.06 and 1.09.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives AS Roma a 42.7% chance of the title and Sassuolo 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AS Roma the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.28 expected goals for AS Roma against 0.74 for Sassuolo. AS Roma's attack/defence rating is 1.5/0.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.06/1.09 for Sassuolo.
How the model reaches 66% for AS Roma to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for AS Roma to win. Then home advantage adds 3 points, AS Roma's ratings add 25 points and Sassuolo's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 66%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage39%+3
- AS Roma's ratings64%+25
- Sassuolo's ratings66%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
AS Roma at home · Sassuolo away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
AS RomaSassuolo
AS Roma are 3rd after 7 Serie A matches (between 1st and 2nd so far); Sassuolo are 13th after 7 (between 9th and 15th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: AS Roma 7, Sassuolo 7.
AS Roma score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Sassuolo have let in 3 there.
Sassuolo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); AS Roma have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
AS Roma
- at Parma21 Nov · Serie Awin 65%
Sassuolo
- vs Genoa22 Nov · Serie Awin 44%
- vs Napoli29 Nov · Serie Awin 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.