Genoa
vs
AC Milan
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Genoa 0–1 AC Milan
The model makes it 21% Genoa, 27% draw, 52% AC Milan — fair odds of 4.76, 3.70 and 1.92. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (14%).
Expected goals: Genoa 0.82, AC Milan 1.62.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
One-sided: AC Milan are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Genoa's rating is built from 45 Serie A matches and AC Milan's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 835 matches.
Key facts
- Genoa are 17th on 4 points from 7 games; AC Milan are 5th on 15 points from 7 games — Serie A.
- Genoa have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to AS Roma.
- AC Milan are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 3-2 win at home to Atalanta.
- Last 6 meetings: AC Milan 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 17 May 2026, ended Genoa 1–2 AC Milan.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Genoa vs AC Milan
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AC Milan at 52% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Genoa vs AC Milan
Genoa
Serie A
- L0-2away to AS Roma17 October 2026
- W2-1Fiorentina10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Parma20 September 2026
- D1-1Frosinone12 September 2026
- L1-4Como4 September 2026
AC Milan
Serie A
- W3-2Atalanta18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Sassuolo11 October 2026
- W3-0Lecce20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Lazio12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Juventus6 September 2026
What these results say
- Genoa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Genoa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Genoa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- AC Milan went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- AC Milan scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- AC Milan conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Genoa | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 4 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Genoa vs AC Milan
- 17 May 2026Genoa 1–2 AC MilanSerie A
- 8 January 2026AC Milan 1–1 GenoaSerie A
- 5 May 2025Genoa 1–2 AC MilanSerie A
- 15 December 2024AC Milan 0–0 GenoaSerie A
- 5 May 2024AC Milan 3–3 GenoaSerie A
- 7 October 2023Genoa 0–1 AC MilanSerie A
Leading scorers: Genoa and AC Milan
Genoa
GoalsAssists
- M. Osmajić31
AC Milan
GoalsAssists
- A. Rabiot43
- Diego Moreira31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Genoa carry a model rating of 6.73 against 7.11 for AC Milan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.82 goals for Genoa and 1.62 for AC Milan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Genoa rate 0.78 in attack and 1.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AC Milan rate 1.27 and 0.75.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Genoa a 0% chance of the title and AC Milan 4.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AC Milan the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Genoa against 1.62 for AC Milan. Genoa's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.27/0.75 for AC Milan.
How the model reaches 52% for AC Milan to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for AC Milan to win. Then home advantage takes away 3 points, Genoa's ratings add 6 points and AC Milan's ratings add 13 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage33%−3
- Genoa's ratings39%+6
- AC Milan's ratings52%+13
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Genoa at home · AC Milan away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Genoa 7, AC Milan 7.
AC Milan score most often in the 61–75 minute window (9 goals); Genoa have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Genoa
- at Sassuolo22 Nov · Serie Awin 28%
- at Inter29 Nov · Serie Awin 11%
AC Milan
- vs Frosinone22 Nov · Serie Awin 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.