Fiorentina
vs
Juventus
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Fiorentina 0–1 Juventus
The model makes it 27% Fiorentina, 27% draw, 46% Juventus — fair odds of 3.70, 3.70 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Fiorentina 1.09, Juventus 1.60.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Edge to Juventus: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Fiorentina's rating is built from 45 Serie A matches and Juventus's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 835 matches.
Key facts
- Fiorentina are 18th on 4 points from 7 games; Juventus are 10th on 11 points from 7 games — Serie A.
- Fiorentina are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Como.
- Juventus have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Lazio.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 May 2026, ended Juventus 0–2 Fiorentina.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fiorentina vs Juventus
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Juventus at 46% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Fiorentina vs Juventus
Fiorentina
Serie A
- L1-3Como18 October 2026
- L1-2away to Genoa10 October 2026
- D1-1Napoli20 September 2026
- W4-2away to Venezia11 September 2026
- L1-2Torino5 September 2026
Juventus
Serie A
- L0-3Lazio18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Cagliari11 October 2026
- W2-0Atalanta20 September 2026
- L2-3away to Sassuolo13 September 2026
- D1-1AC Milan6 September 2026
What these results say
- Fiorentina scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fiorentina conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Fiorentina.
- Juventus failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Juventus scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Juventus conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Fiorentina | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 4 |
| 10 | Juventus | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Fiorentina vs Juventus
- 17 May 2026Juventus 0–2 FiorentinaSerie A
- 22 November 2025Fiorentina 1–1 JuventusSerie A
- 16 March 2025Fiorentina 3–0 JuventusSerie A
- 29 December 2024Juventus 2–2 FiorentinaSerie A
- 7 April 2024Juventus 1–0 FiorentinaSerie A
- 5 November 2023Fiorentina 0–1 JuventusSerie A
Leading scorers: Fiorentina and Juventus
Fiorentina
GoalsAssists
- Franco Mastantuono30
Juventus
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Fiorentina carry a model rating of 6.84 against 7.08 for Juventus. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.09 goals for Fiorentina and 1.60 for Juventus. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fiorentina rate 1.04 in attack and 1.06 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Juventus rate 1.19 and 0.75.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fiorentina a 0% chance of the title and Juventus 1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Juventus the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Fiorentina against 1.60 for Juventus. Fiorentina's attack/defence rating is 1.04/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.19/0.75 for Juventus.
How the model reaches 46% for Juventus to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Juventus to win. Then home advantage takes away 3 points, Fiorentina's ratings add 1 point and Juventus's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage33%−3
- Fiorentina's ratings34%+1
- Juventus's ratings46%+12
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fiorentina at home · Juventus away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Fiorentina 7, Juventus 7.
Juventus score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Fiorentina have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Fiorentina
- at Monza23 Nov · Serie Awin 37%
- at Udinese29 Nov · Serie Awin 37%
Juventus
- vs Venezia23 Nov · Serie Awin 63%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.