Inter
vs
Como
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Inter 2–1 Como
The model makes it 45% Inter, 26% draw, 29% Como — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Inter 1.70, Como 1.24.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Inter's rating is built from 45 Serie A matches and Como's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 835 matches.
Key facts
- Inter are 2nd on 19 points from 7 games; Como are 4th on 17 points from 8 games — Serie A.
- Inter are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-1 win away to Bologna.
- Como are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Sassuolo.
- Last 6 meetings: Inter 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 April 2026, ended Inter 3–2 Como.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Inter vs Como
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Inter at 45% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Inter vs Como
Inter
Serie A
- W3-1away to Bologna17 October 2026
- W3-0Parma10 October 2026
- D2-2away to AS Roma19 September 2026
- W5-3Udinese14 September 2026
- W3-2Napoli5 September 2026
Como
Serie A
- W2-0Sassuolo24 October 2026
- W3-1away to Fiorentina18 October 2026
- D0-0AS Roma11 October 2026
- L0-2away to Frosinone20 September 2026
- W2-1Parma14 September 2026
What these results say
- Inter went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Inter scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Inter had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Inter | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 19 |
| 4 | Como | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Inter vs Como
- 21 April 2026Inter 3–2 ComoCoppa Italia
- 12 April 2026Como 3–4 InterSerie A
- 3 March 2026Como 0–0 InterCoppa Italia
- 6 December 2025Inter 4–0 ComoSerie A
- 23 May 2025Como 0–2 InterSerie A
- 23 December 2024Inter 2–0 ComoSerie A
Leading scorers: Inter and Como
Inter
GoalsAssists
- M. Thuram42
- Lautaro Martínez40
- H. Çalhanoğlu30
Como
GoalsAssists
- T. Douvikas50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Inter carry a model rating of 7.29 against 7.17 for Como. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.70 goals for Inter and 1.24 for Como. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Inter rate 1.82 in attack and 0.78 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Como rate 1.26 and 0.67.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Inter a 50.4% chance of the title and Como 5.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Inter the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Inter against 1.24 for Como. Inter's attack/defence rating is 1.82/0.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.26/0.67 for Como.
How the model reaches 45% for Inter to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Inter to win. Then home advantage adds 3 points, Inter's ratings add 26 points and Como's ratings take away 20 points, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage39%+3
- Inter's ratings65%+26
- Como's ratings45%−20
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Inter at home · Como away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Inter 7, Como 8.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Inter
- at Atalanta22 Nov · Serie Awin 49%
Como
- vs Cagliari21 Nov · Serie Awin 57%
- vs AEK Athens FC24 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.