Cagliari
vs
Frosinone
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Cagliari 0–1 Frosinone
The model makes it 30% Cagliari, 29% draw, 41% Frosinone — fair odds of 3.33, 3.45 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Cagliari 1.08, Frosinone 1.37.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Edge to Frosinone: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Cagliari's rating is built from 45 Serie A matches and Frosinone's from 7, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 831 matches.
Key facts
- Cagliari are 8th on 13 points from 7 games; Frosinone are 6th on 13 points from 7 games — Serie A.
- Cagliari have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat away to Monza.
- Frosinone have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-2 win at home to Sassuolo.
- Last 6 meetings: Cagliari 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 23 September 2025, ended Cagliari 4–1 Frosinone.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cagliari vs Frosinone
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Frosinone at 41% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Cagliari vs Frosinone
Cagliari
Serie A
- L0-4away to Monza19 October 2026
- D1-1Juventus11 October 2026
- W1-0away to Udinese19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Atalanta12 September 2026
- W1-0Lecce7 September 2026
Frosinone
Serie A
- W4-2Sassuolo16 October 2026
- L0-3away to Napoli10 October 2026
- W2-0Como20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Genoa12 September 2026
- W3-2Venezia6 September 2026
What these results say
- Cagliari scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Frosinone scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Frosinone conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Cagliari | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 13 |
| 6 | Frosinone | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Cagliari vs Frosinone
- 23 September 2025Cagliari 4–1 FrosinoneCoppa Italia
- 21 January 2024Frosinone 3–1 CagliariSerie A
- 29 October 2023Cagliari 4–3 FrosinoneSerie A
- 15 April 2023Cagliari 0–0 FrosinoneSerie B
- 27 November 2022Frosinone 2–2 CagliariSerie B
- 20 April 2019Cagliari 1–0 FrosinoneSerie A
Leading scorers: Cagliari and Frosinone
Cagliari
GoalsAssists
- D. Maldini40
Frosinone
GoalsAssists
- A. Raimondo70
- G. Kvernadze31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Cagliari carry a model rating of 6.79 against 6.95 for Frosinone. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.08 goals for Cagliari and 1.37 for Frosinone. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cagliari rate 0.78 in attack and 0.90 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Frosinone rate 1.20 and 0.99.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cagliari a 0% chance of the title and Frosinone 0.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Frosinone the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Cagliari against 1.37 for Frosinone. Cagliari's attack/defence rating is 0.78/0.9 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.2/0.99 for Frosinone.
How the model reaches 41% for Frosinone to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Frosinone to win. Then home advantage takes away 3 points, Cagliari's ratings add 2 points and Frosinone's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage33%−3
- Cagliari's ratings35%+2
- Frosinone's ratings41%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Cagliari at home · Frosinone away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
CagliariFrosinone
Cagliari are 8th after 7 Serie A matches (between 3rd and 13th so far); Frosinone are 6th after 7 (between 4th and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Cagliari 7, Frosinone 7.
Cagliari score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Frosinone have let in 2 there.
Frosinone score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Cagliari have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Cagliari
- at Como21 Nov · Serie Awin 18%
- vs AC Milan29 Nov · Serie Awin 23%
Frosinone
- at AC Milan22 Nov · Serie Awin 26%
- vs Parma29 Nov · Serie Awin 54%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.