Venezia
vs
Udinese
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Venezia 1–2 Udinese
The model makes it 30% Venezia, 27% draw, 43% Udinese — fair odds of 3.33, 3.70 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Venezia 1.22, Udinese 1.55.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,054 settled matches.
Edge to Udinese: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Venezia's rating is built from 7 Serie A matches and Udinese's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 830 matches.
Key facts
- Venezia are bottom on 3 points from 7 games; Udinese are 16th on 4 points from 7 games — Serie A.
- Venezia have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Napoli.
- Udinese have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Lecce.
- Last 5 meetings: Udinese 4 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 2 September 2026, ended Udinese 2–1 Venezia.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Venezia vs Udinese
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Udinese at 43% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 2,059 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Venezia vs Udinese
Venezia
Serie A
- W1-0Napoli17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Atalanta12 October 2026
- L0-2Lazio19 September 2026
- L2-4Fiorentina11 September 2026
- L2-3away to Frosinone6 September 2026
Udinese
Serie A
- L0-3Lecce18 October 2026
- L1-2away to Torino12 October 2026
- L0-1Cagliari19 September 2026
- L3-5away to Inter14 September 2026
- L1-2Lazio7 September 2026
What these results say
- Venezia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Venezia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Venezia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Udinese did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Udinese conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Udinese had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Venezia | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 3 |
| 16 | Udinese | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Venezia vs Udinese
- 2 September 2026Udinese 2–1 VeneziaCoppa Italia
- 1 February 2025Udinese 3–2 VeneziaSerie A
- 30 October 2024Venezia 3–2 UdineseSerie A
- 10 April 2022Venezia 1–2 UdineseSerie A
- 27 August 2021Udinese 3–0 VeneziaSerie A
Leading scorers: Venezia and Udinese
Venezia
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Udinese
GoalsAssists
- J. Ekkelenkamp31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Venezia carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.78 for Udinese. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.22 goals for Venezia and 1.55 for Udinese. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Venezia rate 0.80 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Udinese rate 0.95 and 1.09.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,146 correct results out of 4,446 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Udinese the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Venezia against 1.55 for Udinese. Venezia's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/1.09 for Udinese.
How the model reaches 43% for Udinese to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Udinese to win. Then home advantage takes away 3 points, Venezia's ratings add 13 points and Udinese's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage33%−3
- Venezia's ratings46%+13
- Udinese's ratings43%−3
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Venezia at home · Udinese away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
VeneziaUdinese
Venezia are 20th after 7 Serie A matches (between 18th and 20th so far); Udinese are 16th after 7 (between 2nd and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Venezia 7, Udinese 7.
Udinese score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Venezia have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Venezia
- at Juventus23 Nov · Serie Awin 14%
- vs Bologna29 Nov · Serie Awin 27%
Udinese
- at Bologna22 Nov · Serie Awin 31%
- vs Fiorentina29 Nov · Serie Awin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.