Sassuolo
vs
Napoli
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Sassuolo 1–2 Napoli
The model makes it 21% Sassuolo, 24% draw, 55% Napoli — fair odds of 4.76, 4.17 and 1.82.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Sassuolo 1.04, Napoli 2.04.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Napoli are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Sassuolo's rating is built from 49 Serie A matches and Napoli's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 870 matches.
Key facts
- Sassuolo are 17th on 8 points from 11 games; Napoli are 10th on 15 points from 11 games — Serie A.
- Sassuolo have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to AS Roma.
- Napoli have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Lazio.
- Last 6 meetings: Napoli 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 17 January 2026, ended Napoli 1–0 Sassuolo.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sassuolo vs Napoli
Has the model earned this number?
Napoli at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sassuolo vs Napoli
Sassuolo
Serie A
- L0-3away to AS Roma7 November 2026
- L2-4Fiorentina2 November 2026
- L2-6Lazio27 October 2026
- L0-2away to Como24 October 2026
- L2-4away to Frosinone16 October 2026
Napoli
Serie A
- D1-1Lazio8 November 2026
- L0-2away to Juventus1 November 2026
- W4-1away to Monza28 October 2026
- D3-3AS Roma24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Venezia17 October 2026
What these results say
- Sassuolo did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Sassuolo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sassuolo had three goals or more.
- Napoli conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Napoli failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Sassuolo | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 29 | -13 | 8 |
| 10 | Napoli | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sassuolo vs Napoli
- 17 January 2026Napoli 1–0 SassuoloSerie A
- 23 August 2025Sassuolo 0–2 NapoliSerie A
- 28 February 2024Sassuolo 1–6 NapoliSerie A
- 27 August 2023Napoli 2–0 SassuoloSerie A
- 17 February 2023Sassuolo 0–2 NapoliSerie A
- 29 October 2022Napoli 4–0 SassuoloSerie A
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sassuolo a 0% chance of the title and Napoli 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Napoli the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Sassuolo against 2.04 for Napoli. Sassuolo's attack/defence rating is 1/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.26/0.74 for Napoli.
How the model reaches 55% for Napoli to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Napoli to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, Sassuolo's ratings add 11 points and Napoli's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 55%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage34%−2
- Sassuolo's ratings45%+11
- Napoli's ratings55%+10
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Sassuolo at home · Napoli away
League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
SassuoloNapoli
Sassuolo are 17th after 11 Serie A matches (between 9th and 17th so far); Napoli are 10th after 11 (between 2nd and 10th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Sassuolo 11, Napoli 11.
Sassuolo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Napoli have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Sassuolo
- at Venezia7 Dec · Serie Awin 39%
- at Lecce12 Dec · Serie Awin 38%
- vs Parma19 Dec · Serie Awin 40%
- at Inter3 Jan · Serie Awin 10%
Napoli
- vs Lecce5 Dec · Serie Awin 61%
- vs Club Brugge KV8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 43%
- vs AC Milan13 Dec · Serie Awin 39%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.